Which we only need a handful of people to do. In case you have not noticed, our economies need less and less workers, more and more workloads are performed by machines and algorithms. And that trend will only increase. That means less affluent consumers. Rather than playing stupid, why not using your brain and observe what is going on around you.
Watch what you are saying. You are the one that needs to borrow brain power as clearly you don’t seem to have enough. We simply cannot reduce the money supply to 1950s levels when the population is not at 1950s level. What would you suggest next? Reduce the population?
Just like when excavators were invented, instead of using shovels, people had to work less. Or when email was invented, paper use declined to zero levels Ai will probably only make people more productive. Society can’t handle people working less and less hours
Inflation is already coming down rapidly a good chunk of it was transitory. Even some of the most bearish of analysts are hedging their opinions these days because things aren't unfolding nearly as negative as they expected.
From 2009-2013 this site had a similar environment a lot of day traders absolutely certain of carnage in markets and the economy. And anybody disagreeing with the rhetoric wasn't well received. We seem to be revisiting that type of tone here as permabears got overconfident coming out of a weak year in US markets. Some got absolutely hammered this month so they are a little ornery right now. ps "M.W." can get real aggressive and stupid.
I would love that - talk about bargains! But there are still huge mountains of investable cash sloshing around and inflation is plummeting, greatly reducing the risk of further rate increases. Allocators aren't going to just randomly sell the equity market down a further 30%, to say nothing of 50%, without a major shock.
Labor markets, at least in the US, are still the tightest in half a century, and that's with millions of illegal migrants pouring across the southern border. And it's jobs at the low end (construction workers, baristas) which seem to be mostly going unfilled. If there's a future of disappearing jobs and mass unemployment, it sure isn't visible from here. Seems more likely that rapidly aging populations in many countries will lead to a near-permanent shortage of labor, not a glut.
Sure, if the average Joe is able and willing to re-train to start writing AI code, why not. Very unlikely.
looking a lot like peak earnings last quarter of 2021. I consider peak earnings among most reliable harbinger of a recession. https://www.macrotrends.net/1324/s-p-500-earnings-history The converse is always true so far as I know, i.e., it is difficult to have a recession without going through peak earnings first.