When Does A Stock Market Go Down?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by THE-BEAKER, Oct 11, 2007.

  1. Given my own bearish stance i will try to remain un biased with this comment.

    If the bad news of the last few months, interest rate possible outcomes, high oil prices , high commodity prices and general geo political problems have sent stock markets higher?

    Is it possible the reverse of these would send markets lower.

    Or is it all going higher regardless.

    If the Dow goes to 15-16 thousand which is possible will the central banks be forced to jack rates up to double digits to finally end the bull run.

    Im just curious?
  2. I think terrible earnings and multiple guide downs would help, for most of the heavyweights in the SP500. Then we'd also probably need fear of interest rate hikes rather than hope for more cuts.
  3. mokwit


    There is a limit to how much water can be made to run uphill.
  4. Beaker Common man

    I told you, you can do better

    Why the hell are you bearish or bullish

    please tell me what secret information you have to be bearish or bullish

    what do you know that I don't

    bullshit that's what


    don't make me tell you again :D

    Vito told me to make you a top notch trader, so pal you wanna do this the easy way or the hard way

    (sound of gun cocking) :D :D
  5. haha like it.

    no i agree with you.

    i trade the prices i see regardless with a neutral view every day.

    but i just cant get away from my obsession that im going to come in one monday morning and the dow is down 3000 points and i missed the boat.

    i must own more redundant puts that expire worthless every quarter than any other trader.

    the stocks look like such an obvious bubble.
  6. mokwit


    Makes me think of the Grand Slam bomb used by the RAF in ww2. Dropped from a great height and exploded 100 ft under the ground. Nothing happened for a few minutes and then the bridge or whatever that appeared unhamed collapsed as the earth subsided into the huge cavern created underground (think of the stae of I Banks balance sheets if marked to reality). Think something similar is happening here, although we do have Bernanke pouring fast setting concrete around the base of the pylons in the hpe that it will support things for a while.
  7. I am not posting this to ridicule anyone, but seriously: why (beyond the market clearly being extended on a short-term technical basis) do the indexes look like a bubble? Is it just because the SP500 is up like 10% this year? And 12% last year? Or like 13% annualized over the last 5 years?

    IMO just because some asset class is appreciating in value it doesn't automatically make it a bubble.
  8. mokwit


    Because the main drivers of consumer spending was property and the multiplier effect from that, with corporate profitability driven by that and one time productivity gains from outsourcing to India and China. Overextended rellative to future earnings growth rather than a bubble.
  9. i accept your answer fully but can someone please tell me when they go down.

    what reasons are they.

    i personally have run out.

    cash down last night 80 90 points.

    came in this monring futures 80 up.

    that seems like a regular occurence as well.

    in this new modern its different this time market can anyone please give a few fundamental reasons when to sell the stock market as a whole.
  10. From a historical perspective, Presidential cycles, 07 (pre election year) is an up year. So as I peruse the news, I just bite my nails.
    #10     Oct 11, 2007