SPY at 178.83, and 184.94 was the precise top! My trading models nailed it! My models do not do hindsight, they forecast!
The 184.94 you quoted from your post on January 19th (a Sunday) was the high from two days prior to your post. (Perhaps your definition of "hindsight" includes a multi-day buffer ) SPY closed that Friday at 183.65. If you're so confident of your trading models, why did you inexplicably remove the words "and TJ is bearish" from your post on the 19th? Now, if you take a peek at my reply to your original post on the 19th (which I believe you actually read because you inexplicably edited it afterwards to remove the words "and TJ is bearish"), you'll see that my price action trading models forecast probabilities without the risk of massive drawdowns such as the ones your models conveniently ignore. Price moved up over 1.00 twice from that Friday's close, allowing day trading bulls (and bears) to profit from the narrow range consolidation at the highs. Waiting for the test of the highs and positioning short off the double top gave bears a better entry price opportunity than your models with far less probabilistic risk. The second mouse gets the cheese without the risk of getting trapped. BTW, why did you remove the words "and TJ is bearish" from your post?
The econometrics of a depression are not ordinarily in the picture in most people's lives In this one, the government has been a heavy participant. As expected the potential energy of the Depression has been building steadily. Potential energy does become kinectic energy at some point slowest fractal is place to look. In investing, wealth can be slow to lose. In position trading, the scope narrows. In trading the oppotunity increase for money velocity of building wealth. If you are an observer or potential trader, then you need to step up to the plate and take this as an opportunity
It's a different language. Or perhaps even a different reality. A certain type of trader is willing even to pay someone to provide a forecast, which he will then trade come hell or high water. If it fails, it's the other person's fault. He assumes no responsibility. Traders of this sort cannot tolerate uncertainty. The price-action trader, however, thrives on it. He cannot afford to trade his ego. He must do what the market tells him to do, even though the market may repeatedly change its mind within a single session. Or within a given hour. Friday, for example, I posted before the NY open to watch for 3600 or 3540 on the NQ. I didn't care which. Why should I? And when the market "turned bearish" shortly thereafter, 10m before the open, I went short at 93 and rode it all the way down. If it had turned bullish instead, I would have done the opposite. It all depended on what was in front of me. But that's the essence of PA trading. Those who don't know how to or cannot interpret what's in front of them at the moment in real time operate in a different reality from those who can and do.
I agree. I was looking at the chart of all three and thought shoot.... long ym or es and short nq may be a great pairs trade over the next week or so.
If I buy ES I'm not buying right away. I'll let it gap down creating a 3rd gap, perhaps then buy once the sellers peter out , the buy to fill this one. Serious momentum down here is hard to stop & reverse,,takes a little time.