When can I expect profits????

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Amkeer, Oct 8, 2002.

  1. Amkeer


    I am new to trading. I have been trading for almost 2 years mostly scalp or swing trades. Traded about 700 times in that 2 year span. My trading account is negative 25% in 2 years most of that is due to commissions. The last 8 months or so I have been trading sideways, in other words almost break even. All long side trades no shorts.

    Here is my question to the sucessfull traders out there. If I am averaging a 60% win ratio shouldn't I start realizing some profits soon? Do you find the transition goes from losing money, to sideways, to making money?

    I am curious as to the transition to successful trader developes, how long, how many trades, etc..

    Searching for some encouragement. All responses and help is much appreciated.:)
  2. if you are breaking even in this market with long trades only your not doing that bad.this is a shorters market.
  3. Amkeer


    Thanks for the response Vhehn, much appreciated! I would love to start shorting but feel I missed the majority of the move, therefore its probably best to stay the course, right?
  4. Amkeer


    I am currently using Askresearch for charting software. I use the 1, 5, 15, 30 minute to time entries, with the stochastics, RSI, bollinger and macd. I use the 1 minute streaming for entry.

  5. NDQnCA

    NDQnCA Guest

    you've got to learn to play the short side of trading- you can't survive only going long (especially in this crappy market)- you have to be dynamic and adapt to changing conditions. for instance, i used to scalp nasdaq until that really became garbage- now i trade listed and wonder why i ever did nasdaq at all- i am absolutely KILLING it trading listed and it is SOOO much better- i am able to move around much bigger size with more conviction- and make more money, most importantly :D

    so, to answer your question, you will not succeed until you find a winning system, can trade it profitably and have a STRICT sense of discipline in your trading. good luck to you, i know how tough it is starting out in this business (i only started 2 years ago)
  6. A few thoughts:

    1. You have been trading from the long side only in the middle of the worst bear market in 25 years. Why? If you are ever going to be consistently profitable, you need to learn/be willing to go short (trade with the trend).

    2. Do you have a method with an edge? That is, do you have a specific "trigger" that causes you to initiate a trade, AND at the same time, do you have/know pre-determined exit points/triggers that will cause you to exit? If so, do you know enough about your method to know you have a positive expectancy? If not, as a beginner, you are just flailing around in the darkness without a flashlight.

    3. A win rate alone is meaningless. The key is when you win: how much?....AND when you lose, how much? Combine those two factors with your win rate, and you get your "expectancy", or expected profit/trade. Obviously, this number should be positive.
  7. NDQnCA

    NDQnCA Guest

    oh- also- get away from the "when will i get paid??" mentality and instead focus on how you can better yourself as a trader- learn all that you can (read, get a mentor, etc) develop the necessary psychological skills and develop a solid plan- once you get that down, the money just comes, man. BUT- it is NOT easy- you have to be very hungry and bust your ass everyday.
  8. Change to a lower commission broker, and voila! :)

    Your 60% win ratio, I presumed it's win/loss trades? Try the win$/loss$ ratio, I think this one is more important.

    Cheers!!! :)

  9. Hell, NO! That statement is akin to saying the market has bottomed, and people have been saying that for the past 600 S&P points and 3000 NASDAQ points. Maybe it has, maybe it hasn't, but the point is, we dont' know. What if this lasts another year or two? Do you want to lose another 25%? Then you're down 50% and have to double your money just to get back to where you started....A good methodology will tell you when to go long & when to go short, but developing one takes a lot of time, work, and experimenting. Good Luck
  10. Amkeer


    I agree with the trend is your friend. Your right i need to start shorting the market. I feel a rally is in order, so i will try to short after the next rally, right? Any good short canidates?

    I switched to a discount broker, hence the sideways trading. Currently using Freetrade as my broker.

    The money hasn't been the focus for about 8 months. Trading capital is just a tool to get what you want.

    So fighting the trend would be the big mistake, right? Should have been shorting the market.

    Thanks for the responses so far! Keep them coming!

    #10     Oct 8, 2002