When Bush whacks Iraq

Discussion in 'Politics' started by taodr, Aug 16, 2002.

  1. taodr


    I'm curious how the markets will react when Bush whacks Iraq. Will they see it as positive or negative. Also the massive post attack reaction. How long will it be before Bush or one of his "smart" advisors realize the only way for another boom economy is the price of oil has to be lowered dramatically.
  2. Husky02


    going to war is never good for the markets....short us stocks and get long gold
  3. Vishnu


    I've been searching for undervalued military-related stocks that havent run up as much as the already overvalued "standards" (LMT, RTN, etc.). Here's what I have so far. Any suggestions appreciated:

    DHB - makes bulletproof vests. P/E around 8. CEO just converted debt the company owed him to common equity.

    AH - makes bulletproof vests, armored vehicles. P/E around 18 but excellent balance sheet. No debt and $1.40/share in cash.

    SSSS - P/E around 12. makes armored vehicles.

    SRX -- recent IPO. makes software to help the CIA and DoD Intelligence analyze text/email/etc

    VNX -- rebuilding Pentagon systems after 9/11

    UIS -- old-school IT shop. Just got $1B deal with Homeland Security Dept.
    P/E < 10

    I've also been long INVN but I think its run up too much. And I've been long CACI but that also has run up a bit. And I've played CDCY, which makes blast-resistant windows for embassies but I got out of it when they posted lower profits.

    Any other suggestions are welcome. I think its important to remember a couple of pieces of data:

    a. The day we attacked Iraq in the Gulf War the market shot up and kept going.

    b. Govt spending is the one sector of the economy that is definitely growing

    c. Going to war in the beginning of 1942 ended the last 3 year losing streak the market has had until this year.
  4. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    It will really depend on how it goes from the start. The market is always taking things into account and pricing them in, so with everyone blowing their horns about war its pricing it in now, and when/if it does occur, then we will likely get some of that pricing in taken out.

  5. Last time we went to war with Iraq, the markets sold off in anticipation, with oil prices rising dramatically. When we finnally did attack, the market shot up, with crude prices plummetting.

    Iraq owes us big time. We need to recoup the cost of this war by seizing a few oil fields, and taking back payment in full with a few billion barrels of black gold.
  6. taodr


    I have a suspicion payback date is september 11
  7. taodr


    Apparently from the media and from others Iran is about to have another revolution anytime. The younger generation is fed up with the harsh religious rulers(and corrupt) I'm guessing but when this happens the Iranians might just flood the market with oil. Maybe the revolution and Iraq attack are tied together. I would be dubious of holding gold.
  8. Just pray it doesn't happen. There will not be any coalition besides Blair's UK, Bush's puppet. Imagine what two puppets can do together.
  9. Geez Vishnu, stocks??? Why'd do make a post about stocks on ET? :D

    Just kidding, man...I like your ideas. I'm going to look into that sh!t soon...
    #10     Aug 16, 2002