En cas d'urgence, America will STEAL oil. It would be cheaper for us to take over the middle east than to pay exorbitant oil prices. Don't think it's not in the contingency plans. Saudi narrowly escaped it in '73.
While plausible, I doubt it will happen. Maybe a 25% increase in oil prices but our Saudi friends will pump more oil into the market to stabilize prices. $200 oil may happen years down the road or an embargo. A war with Iran wouldn't bring oil up that much.
I think you'll find it more likely that a barrel of oil will fall out of the sky and strike your 200$ suit.
& especially now that we have that nice base in the middle east called Iraq... very convenient refueling stop for our air force which is the bulk of the striking force. And if we pull out of iraq for a while to do this, and send the country into chaos, only to have to re-occupy it once things with iran have cooled down, oh well....