In my opinion, Trend days happen whenever heavy resisantance areas are pierced heavy support areas are broken. This is similar to breaking the dam of a floodgate, Once broken, it just flows. To know the Range areas, you need to look longer term. Each term is a set of resistance, the longer the term, the heavier the resistance. Like hurdles, once jumped, it heads on to the next one. This is easier said then done, because many resistance piercing and support breaking are fakeouts. So the best method to handle this situation is to send in the hired help instead of your heavy infantry. I hope you understand what I mean
No, you aren't predicting the trend will continue, you "see" the trend continuing and you see it reverse. Quite clearly I may add. The longer you watch the Market this way you will realize the Market trends (on your chart) 80% of the time and consolidates about 20%. Money Management the second factor but it's a lot easier to manage when your you have a lot fewer losing trades and the ones you do have are miniscule.
Take the difficulty out of the equation. You designate which support & resistance determines trend and which ones are just trading opportunities. You designate it because you create the chart. It's your chart and no one elses. Who cares what is on someones elses chart, you trade YOUR chart. It's not hard you just have to do it and not discuss it. Once you lay it out and use it you realise the beauty in it.
Charlie, I don't know if you are just regurtating words , it seems like overlaps of the same thing I'm saying but, Traders trade their own ideas. The idea is it needs to looks good to an instituational investor/whale's chart. Retail traders do not influence markets. You are only there for the ride.
If you want to learn when the market is most likely to trend then try trading a strategy that requires the market to be in congestion. It will give you a real sense of what the open, economic reports and earning announcements will to to a market.
===================== a]Pro pilots use trendlines also; yes, Mike ,would look for more than a closing range. z]May very well be a profitable strategy to short some companies who rail against short sellers, but would include amoung others , looking @ year to date chart, and for longs prefer strongest sectors trends.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from coolweb: In my opinion, Trend days happen whenever heavy resisantance areas are pierced heavy support areas are broken. This is similar to breaking the dam of a floodgate, Once broken, it just flows. To know the Range areas, you need to look longer term. Each term is a set of resistance, the longer the term, the heavier the resistance. Like hurdles, once jumped, it heads on to the next one. This is easier said then done, because many resistance piercing and support breaking are fakeouts. So the best method to handle this situation is to send in the hired help instead of your heavy infantry. I hope you understand what I mean -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from Charlie Dow: Take the difficulty out of the equation. You designate which support & resistance determines trend and which ones are just trading opportunities. You designate it because you create the chart. It's your chart and no one elses. Who cares what is on someones elses chart, you trade YOUR chart. It's not hard you just have to do it and not discuss it. Once you lay it out and use it you realise the beauty in it. __________________________________________________ Look at Coll and charlie, different discussions about different chtings. What is cool doing? He mentions going from a shorter term trend back into the envelope of the next longer term. This is when the right trend line of the shorter term trendline is broken. Here is where the horizontal lines of Support and Resistance are superimposed on the longer term channel and within that channel. Better be cautious here. There are three types of trends: up down and lateral. Is the right trend line value at the value of Resistance or Support when cools event happens? We know it isn't right off because it is alway coincident with the last price values where the left channel line is hit. Is this just a sloppy writeup by cool? Could be. So what is really going on here when the cool show is running?? The breakout on the trend line is just a price move back into the longer term channel AND when the BO turns into a Failure, you have the beginning of a lateral channel (the commonly over looked channel formation) where you are getting set up for a strong longer term narrow trading range that takes you to the other (right side) of the longer term channel. Lets take a look at how charlie doesn't see what Cool didn't see also. Charlie is focused on S and R all the time regardless of consideration of the context of terms (long, intermediate and short). These terms of channels are always there. the S and R of Charlie is his personal strategically determined range for the attention span of his strategy. Do you think he adjusts his strategic attention span according to the variations in the various operating dynamiics of the nesting characteristics of the three basic concurrent operating channels? He has to, of course. Dealing as he does with horizontal lines, is less better than dealing with market dictated sloping lines. Where do the above two posts leave you? Cool with trendlines, is on the wrong side of the channel as he speaks about R and S, R and R are more profit taking places (left sides of channels). BO on trend line near R (below) and S (above) lead to lateral moves more likely (This is why faders exist who can't trade markets). Charlies just sees the lateral emphasis of R and S which are way apart price wise. R and S behave more as boundaries in which price moves. When do you get trends relative to R and S? Usually R and S end the trend previously going on. Where is price headed going from R or S? Regression to the mean. How does this line get put into the mix? Are there any horizontal regression lines in stats on markets? Not if making money is on the table. So to get trends going you need some pressure to move the market. a. How do you measure that? and b. what preceeeds the signal you are looking for? It is nice to go through the drill to get to the answer. Check out Connors Hayward. Chapters 3 through 5. And notice how informed traders do it in Larry Harris?? (skips my mind for the moment...)
a. and b. Answers. a. Resumption of volatility (cool quotes "it just flows after it starts"). b. Volatility compression (Connors Hayward). There's a lot of stuff to cover in any topic that comes up. What causes people to think of new considerations???? Do you think someone would stop to figure it all out? Where are those someones and what the heck are they spending their time doing anyway? Do they keep stuff secrets because they think any particular insights would even come close to changing how the markets opperate?...lol I liked that little ship that burned rubber chips and changed its shape hydraulically to do what was needed. Space shuttles certainly aren't turning out to be rocket science anymore. Squeese those bars and start that trend...lol WTF...guys....
I meant, to be most clear. a. squeese those bars.... and.......... THEN, b.,.....start that trend. volatilitywise: A. look for slow compression....... B. Then volatility resumption.........