When a model becomes extinct

Discussion in 'Automated Trading' started by Zortauk, Apr 14, 2021.

  1. I also don’t think that the Covid-19 pandemic has changed the way I trade. I have been using my strategy for the last few years and have been making good money with it.
     
    #31     Jun 16, 2021
    murray t turtle likes this.
  2. kroxobor

    kroxobor

    like if your model implies a high ratio of short positions then during a bubble period it may exhibit bad performance. Or for example your model is not robust to volatility changes then it could deteriorate.
     
    #32     Jun 18, 2021
  3. %%
    VIRUS related did seem to hit hard some weak companies ; especially if they went bankrupt like DAL......................................................BUT even MCD.... a fast food place that people dont really have to go to is doing fine. Sounds like Zortauk needs to look more.......
     
    #33     Jul 2, 2021
  4. %%
    Maybe;
    4TH QUARTER tends to do bigger%. BUT one hedge funds does the earnings play but more than that...................................................................................................
     
    #34     Jul 6, 2021
  5. Adim

    Adim

    Zortauk

    1) you dont tell us much about what you do beyond "since covid" and "illiquid", so how can we to know? though, those two words may be your clue: liquidity in bullshit stocks really jumped after covid, yes?

    2) your trading seems to be earnings related. there is a ORH ("outside regular trading hours") gremlin who piles on stocks on earnings in the thin ORH market. like a master brain-twister, he keeps switching around his strategy. one earnings season he jumps on disappointments, the next season he jumps on positive surprises.

    https://lanternsatdaybreak.wordpress.com/2021/10/27/weaponizing-options-around-earnings/

    its probably related to NOPE indicator. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/vide...ons-market-impact-on-price-lily-francus-video

    basically, the algo reads the preearnings option position and then goes big premarket to force options mms to cover

    3) on a more general note, markets change all the time. i spent the first 15 years of my career trading panics in EM debt for obscene profits. then the big boys moved in, liquidity went up and eye popping returns disappeared almost overnight and have not been seen since
     
    #35     Nov 17, 2021