Wheat Winterkill Issue.

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by kanellop, Nov 13, 2012.

  1. kanellop


    Hello Again.

    I decide this hour to add some Data that i have find,

    for this very important aspect ( Wheat Winterkill ).

    Searching in my Archives i have find the following Informations:

    1) I have sent in the past an E-Mail Message to Mr Donald Keeney of MDA Federal,

    which was:


    Dear Donald,

    Good Morning.

    I hope to be well there in USA.

    Yesterday, you sent me a Comment, where inside, you wrote:

    "However, I took

    a look at temps since late February and saw very few stations in the
    crop areas of mainland Europe that were at or below the winterkill
    thresholds of 0 F (-17 C). "

    I want to please you, to tell me something.

    For how many time must leave the Temperature at or below -17 C ,

    in a Wheat Crop Area that have not Snow Cover,

    for to say that we have a Winterkill Phenomenon ?

    Also suppose that in a Wheat Crop Area we have Snow Cover.

    For how many Time, must leave the Temperature at or below -17 C,

    into that Area,

    for to say that we have a Winterkill Phenomenon ?

    What is your opinion for that Issues ?

    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.


    His Answer to me was:



    Winterkill thresholds are a bit dependent on crop health during germination and establishment the previous fall. A well established crop can withstand temperatures slightly lower than poorly established crop. The general rule is that a well established wheat crop can withstand temperatures as low as -20 C for up to 4 hours. A poorly established crop can withstand temperatures to -17 C for up to 4 hours. Anything more than 4 hours will begin to cause damage. I just used the -17 C as a minimum threshold for any possibility of winterkill. Snow cover more than 4" (10 cm) will protect wheat no matter how cold it gets, while snow cover less than that will do little to protect wheat.



    2) I had find this in the past:


    http://www.hpj.com/archives/2008/dec08/dec22/Wheatspecialistgivestipsone.cfm .

    Wheat specialist gives tips on evaluating potential for winterkill


    Frigid temperatures arrived with a vengeance in Kansas in mid-December which may have prompted wheat growers to wonder if that is causing any winterkill of wheat?

    There are three main questions to consider when evaluating the potential for winterkill, said Jim Shroyer, K-State Extension agronomy state leader and crop production specialist.

    --How well has the wheat hardened off? When temperatures through fall and early winter gradually get colder, that helps wheat plants develop good winterhardiness, Shroyer said.

    "When temperatures remain unusually warm late into the fall then suddenly drop into the low teens, plants are less likely to have had time to harden properly and will be more susceptible to winterkill," he said. "This fall, temperatures have fallen off gradually and the wheat crop should be adequately hardened in most cases."

    --How well developed is the root system? Where wheat plants have a good crown root system and two or more tillers, they will have better winterhardiness, Shroyer said. If plants are poorly developed going into winter, with few secondary roots and no tillers, they will be more susceptible to winterkill or desiccation.

    "Poor development of secondary roots may not be readily apparent unless the plants are pulled up and examined. If plants are poorly developed, it may be due to poor seed-to-soil contact, dry soils, very low pH, insect damage, or other causes," he said.

    --How cold did the soil get at the crown level? This depends on snow cover and moisture levels in the soil. Winterkill is possible if soil temperatures at the crown level (about one inch deep) get down to 10 to 12 degrees or less, Shroyer said. If there is at least an inch of snow on the ground, the wheat will be protected and soil temperatures will usually remain above the critical level. Also, if the soil has good moisture, it's possible that soil temperatures at the crown level may not reach the critical level even in the absence of snow cover.

    "But if the soil is dry and there is no snow cover, there may be the potential for winterkill, especially on exposed slopes or in low-lying areas, depending on the condition of the plants. Air temperatures below -10 degrees can certainly reduce soil temperatures below critical levels when the soil is dry and there is no snow cover," he said.

    To test for winterkill damage, producers can dig up a few plants, put them in pots, and bring them inside to warm up, the K-State agronomist said. If the plants do not respond to the warmer conditions, they may have suffered winterkill injury.

    "If plants are killed outright, they won't green up," Shroyer added. "But if they are only damaged, it might take them awhile to die. They will green up and then slowly go "backwards" and eventually die. There are enough nutrients in the crown to allow the plants to green up, but the winter injury causes vascular damage so that the nutrients that are left cannot move, or root rot diseases move in and kill the plants. This slow death is probably the most common result of winter injury on wheat."

    Direct cold injury is not the only source of winter injury, he added.

    "Under dry conditions, wheat plants may suffer from desiccation," he said. This can kill or weaken plants, and is actually a more common problem than direct cold injury."

    1 Star WK\9-B

    Date: 12/18/08


    Now, i have find and this PDF File:

    http://www.ksre.ksu.edu/library/crpsl2/c646.pdf .

    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
  2. kanellop


    Hello Again.

    I have to say,

    that a very serious Article relative to Winter Kill Issue,

    published on Tuesday 29th November 2012,


    http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc3aca540d013b4d0972d7054b .

    Here is the Publication in Words:


    Snow Cover's Importance to Winter Wheat

    Arctic cold is a common occurrence across the Canadian Prairies during the winter as it slides southward from the Yukon and the Northwest Territories from time to time. The degree and persistence of this extreme cold can vary considerably from year to year depending on the overall weather pattern that sets up.
    Winter wheat has shown some increase in acreage across the Prairies during the recent few decades and its survival during the winter depends quite a bit on how much snow cover exists during periods of cold weather. Snow cover acts as a warming blanket and is an excellent insulator.

    Research done by North Dakota State University and the U.S. Department of Agriculture show that only a few inches of snow can greatly benefit winter wheat during times of cold. It is generally accepted that 3 inches (8 cm) of snow can prevent winterkill, but that 4 to 6 inches (10 to 15 cm) of snow depth will further reduce winter injury.

    Soil temperatures at crown depth have been shown to be as much as 30 to 35 degrees F higher with 2 to 4 inches (5 to 8 cm) of snow cover while readings of 40 to 55 degrees F higher can occur with 5 inches (13 cm) or more of snow. The study was based on air temperatures of minus 22 to minus 40 F (minus 30 to minus 40 C), which are temperatures seen several times during a typical winter across the Canadian Prairies.

    When crown depth temperatures fall to minus 5 F (minus 21 C) or lower, we see a rapid increase in winterkill, but with a few inches of snow crown depth temperatures may only be a few degrees below freezing, allowing for a good survival rate.

    Current snow depths across the central and southern Prairies are in the range of 2 to 8 inches (5 to 20 cm) with lesser amounts across southern Saskatchewan. Temperatures have been lower than normal during the past few weeks across the Prairies, but no extreme readings have yet to appear and most areas currently have enough snow to protect winter wheat.

    A couple of low pressure areas moving through the region during the next week may add to the current snow cover and we are not expecting any extreme cold in the short term. Beyond 10 days, there are signs that some arctic air may arrive and send temperatures to well below zero F (minus 18 C). Hopefully we will continue to have the protective snow cover for winter wheat still in place.

    Posted at 10:38AM CST 11/29/12 by Doug Webster


    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
  3. yes, you know that, I know that, everybody knows that

    the question is, how much of that info is already priced into July wheat?

    most who think it is going to be worse than the market has priced would go short March vs long July
  4. kanellop


    Hello Again to All.

    I want to add some more Data for this manner this hour.

    It is from here:

    http://www.kansascity.com/2013/04/10/4173556/late-winter-blast-probably-damaged.html ,


    Late winter blast probably damaged Kansas wheat crop

    April 10th, 2013,

    Bloomberg News

    Freezing weather in the southern Great Plains probably damaged maturing winter-wheat plants that emerged from dormancy within the past month, according to MDA Information Systems LLC.Temperatures dropped as low as 4 degrees for seven or eight hours in parts of eastern Colorado and as low as 19 degrees in western Kansas and Oklahoma, Donald Keeney, a senior agricultural meteorologist, said Wednesday.

    Kansas is the largest producer of hard red winter wheat, which is used primarily for bread.

    Damage in the southern growing region probably was 8 percent to 10 percent of plants that have reached the jointing stage, when wheat resumes its growth after being dormant for the winter, Keeney said. About 59 percent of Oklahoma wheat was jointed as of April 7, while Kansas crops were at 22 percent, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show.

    “If we get into the 20s or below anywhere in Oklahoma, it is going to have an impact” on winter wheat, said Kim Anderson, an agronomist at Oklahoma State University. “The wheat that’s in the jointed stage and developing heads will definitely be impacted.”

    Temperatures tonight may fall as low as 24 degrees in parts of the southern Plains, which would put another 3 percent to 5 percent of jointed wheat at risk, Keeney said. To recover, plants need rainfall in the next two weeks and for temperatures to stay above freezing, Anderson said.

    “We want warmer weather and steady moisture,” Anderson said. “In looking back at the years when we had really good crops, we had frequent rains to keep the topsoil moist and slightly below-average temperatures to extend the development and give the less-mature plants a chance to catch up.”


    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
  5. kanellop


    Hello Again to All.

    I want to add some more Data that i have find relative with this Issue.

    It is from here:

    http://www.agrimoney.com/marketrepo...focus-as-commodities-back-in-vogue--2110.html .


    19:56 GMT, Thursday, 25th Apr 2013, by Agrimoney.com

    Evening markets: wheat in focus as commodities back in vogue

    Wheat got there in the end.

    Many commentators have been puzzling why there was not a bigger reaction earlier in the week to the frost which beset US hard red winter wheat crops in the southern Plains, again.

    After all, "temperatures in much of the plains hit historic lows", US Commodities said, noting that temperatures in Amarillo hit 17 degrees Fahrenheit (-8.3 Celsius), "the lowest temperature since 1892".

    "Oklahoma pushed into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. Kansas had 40% of the crop in the joint stage with temps below 28 degrees for four hours. This equates to severe damage."

    Indeed, the frost, coupled with persistent dryness testing the crop, "have caused production losses to push near 100m bushels (2.7m tonnes)", the broker said.

    Poor exports

    Arguments differ as to the actual extent of the damage, although more will be known after the Wheat Quality Council's annual crop tour next week.

    FCStone said: "Last night saw what looks to be the last freeze in the US plains, with estimates of winterkill ranging from 250,000 tonnes to 1m tonnes in hard red winter wheat," the type traded in Kansas.

    And there were some negatives around for the grain too, with the US reporting its worst weekly old crop wheat exports of 2012-13, of 71,700 tonnes, and the European Union its lowest shipments since August, speaking of soft demand (and potentially the former Soviet Union reemerging as a competitive threat).

    Better data

    But what really helped bulls' cause was commodities' return to investors' good books.

    Along with some well-received corporate results, including from Bunge, whose shares soared 6%, the UK ended the run of negative economic news by reporting that it had not, as had been feared, fallen into a triple-dip recession, seeing growth of 0.3% in the first three months of 2013.

    In the US, initial jobless claims last week fell by more than analysts had expected, while continuing claims reached a post-recession low.

    The impact was to lift many assets, but in particular commodities, after a rough couple of weeks, helping the CRB index close up 1.5%, its strongest performance in five months.

    Kansas wheat soars

    The enthusiasm for raw materials lifted many targets, including Brent crude, which rose 1.3%.

    But hard red winter wheat's freeze story made it an ideal target for cash inflows, which lifted the Kansas July contract 2.9% to $7.62 a bushel, climbing back above 10-, 20 and 50-day moving averages.

    Chicago soft red winter wheat rose too, by 1.5% to $7.01 ¼ a bushel, amid some background talk too of wet Midwest conditions causing some hardship to crops in generally good condition.

    It was the turn of Minneapolis spring wheat to lag, up 0.8% at $8.07 ¾ a bushel for July, with higher temperatures due to bring snow melt and at least uncover ground, although whether snow will be replaced by floods…

    'Export demand has picked up'

    Back in Chicago, fellow grain corn could not match wheat's performance. But then it did face a somewhat bearish International Grains Council report.

    It managed solid gains nonetheless, of 1.0% to $6.24 ½ a bushel for March delivery, helped by respectable weekly US export sales of 314,000 tonnes.

    An announcement through the US Department of Agriculture's daily alerts system of 240,000 tonnes if 2013 corn to "unknown", plus 300,000 tonnes to China, made up for a disappointing new crop number in the weekly report.

    "Corn export demand has picked up over past couple weeks and appear on pace to reach USDA's forecasted 800m bushels," Benson Quinn Commodities said.

    'Forecast has trended wetter'

    Meanwhile, the new crop December corn contract regained a further 0.6% to $5.31 ¼ a bushel, helped by ideas of a less benign weather outlook for Midwest spring plantings.

    "The forecast has trended wetter across the north central and eastern Midwest and southern Delta" in the six-to-10 day outlook, MDA said.

    "Temperatures are trending cooler across the Plains, Delta, and western Midwest late in the period."

    And in the 11-to-15 day outlook, "the forecast has trended wetter in the western Plains and northeastern Midwest", the weather service said.

    US Commodities said: "The Delta and the South East rains are now enough of a concern that talk is surfacing on switches out of corn to soybeans," which can be later seeded.

    'Good news for bull spreaders'

    In fact, that was not reflected in Chicago prices, with new crop November soybeans faring better than new crop corn, and closing up 1.1% at $12.06 ¼ a bushel.

    And this despite a dismal old crop export sales figure of a negative 206,300 tonnes, meaning more cancellations than sales, although the new crop number of 628,500 tonnes was more respectable.

    Still, there was a twist, with the loss of soybean sales offset by another solid week for soymeal export sales, at 193,000 tonnes, implying more need for domestic crushing.

    "Old crop bean sales were negative, but were offset by large meal sales as any cancelled soybeans will be seeing moving into the domestic market to meet meal export demand," Benson Quinn Commodities said.

    At RJ O'Brien, Richard Feltes said that the "ongoing robust pace of US soymeal export sales is bad news for domestic meal users looking for price relief and good news for bull soymeal spreaders, with seasoned spreaders looking for another $10 a short ton in the July-August contract inverse".

    In fact, the contracts were neck and neck, with July soymeal adding 2.3% to $400.10 a short ton in Chicago, and August soymeal 2.3% to $373.90 a short ton.

    July soybeans closed up 2.0% at $13.72 ¼ a bushel.

    Cocoa, cotton rise

    Soft commodities, however, failed to benefit so much from the turn bullish in market sentiment, although July cocoa rose 1.5% to $2,360 a tonne in New York, in a rise attributed to technical factors.

    The increase was seen having been potentially stronger were it not for weak data on the Asian cocoa grind, which was seen down 10.8% year on year in the first quarter.

    New York cotton managed headway of 0.3% to 83.23 cents a pound, helped by some respectable weekly US exports of 249,600 running bales for old crop.

    With new crop export sales at just 41,100 running bales, the December contract closed up 0.2% at 83.28 cents a pound.

    'More sugar will emerge'

    But New York raw sugar struggled to recover from two-year lows, setting a fresh one indeed, of 17.25 cents a pound for May delivery before recovering to close at 17.41 cent a pound, a 0.01 cent gain, feeling the weight of a seasonal rise in Brazilian supplies.

    "As we approach the crush in earnest in Centre South Brazil, more sugar will emerge and will need to find a home," Nick Penney at Sucden Financial said.

    "End users have been patient and are letting the market come to them."


    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
  6. kanellop


    Hello Again to All.

    Exist the following News:

    http://lubbockonline.com/agricultur...area-wheat-crop .


    Multiple freezes damage area wheat crop
    In some fields more than 70 percent of crop has been lost

    Posted: May 7, 2013 - 5:48pm | Updated: May 8, 2013 - 12:29am


    Calvin Trostle, extension agronomist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, called the series of freezes between late March and early May much worse for wheat than a normal year.

    Damage to a wheat crop from a freeze normally takes about a week to manifest, so he hasn’t evaluated fields since the Friday, May 3, dip in temperatures. But he has gotten early reports from Terry, Hockley and Yoakum counties of new damage to crops.

    Damage to the wheat plant is dependent on what stage of the growing cycle the crop is in and when the freeze occurs. Plants are most venerable at the flowering stage and temperatures below 32 degrees for more than two hours can damage crops.

    “At that point we would anticipate significant risk to the yield potential,” Trostle said. “It may or may not happen.”

    During the two stages of growth before flowering, when the wheat head emerges and in the boot stage, the crop can better survive cold weather. The head is the most sensitive part of the plant, if the head of a stem dies it will not produce grain. Each wheat plant does have up to seven or eight stems.

    “The younger the wheat,” Trostle said. “The more able it is to withstand low temperatures without injury.”

    On the South Plains, wheat south of Lubbock is mostly in the flowering stage and northwest of Lubbock the majority is in the late boot stage, Trostle explained.

    “The bottom line,” Trostle said, “is an assessment needs to be made on each field on a case-by-case basis.”

    Trostle does predict the majority of the wheat harvest on the South Plains will be sold for cattle feed. But the value the crop has as a hay product could be diminished for farmers who planted with the intention of harvesting wheat. Trostle said most grain wheat is a variety that develops a beard as the head emerges. This beard creates problems for cattle, as it can get stuck in their gums or throats.

    Those farmers who plan on selling their crop as hay need to think about the price they are selling it for, Trostle advised.

    “They need to make sure they are getting paid enough,” Trostle said.

    One cost producers might not take into account is the loss of nitrogen from their soil. Not taking the wheat to harvest and selling it as hay means removing more of the plant from the field, and more of the nitrogen it contains. Because plants need nitrogen to produce protein, this will need to be replaced with fertilizer.

    Mark Brown, Texas AgriLife Extension agent in Lubbock County, agreed with Trostle about damage to crops varying from field to field.

    “Some fields are a 70 percent loss,” Brown said. “The vast majority of wheat in Lubbock County will not be taken to grain harvest.”

    Brown said much of Lubbock County’s wheat crop will be used as cover for a second crop such as cotton, or will be sold as hay. He pointed out it was the number of freezes that made the season so hard.

    “It isn’t uncommon for us to get a freeze in April,” Brown said. “But I don’t recall having so many hard freezes roll through this region every few days.”

    Brown doesn’t expect damage to the wheat crop to show up as increased prices to consumers.

    “The cost of the raw commodity of wheat is a small percentage of what we pay at the store,” Brown said.

    Where there is concern for both Brown and Trostle is the supply of seed grain for the fall planting.

    “The seed could be more expensive,” Brown said, “and more difficult to find varieties bred for our area.”

    Wheat varieties for the South Plains are bred for the unique pest threat, rainfall conditions and temperature range of the region.

    Steelee Fischbacher, communications director for Texas Wheat Producers Board and Association, called the damage significant but highly variable.

    “The drought has been the ongoing battle,” Fischbacher said, “and the freeze was the last nail the coffin.”

    Drought conditions delayed the growth of some of the crop, Fischbacher explained, but the lack of water decreased the health of many plants.

    Like Brown and Trostle, Fischbacher pointed out less mature plants did better in the cold.

    Fischbacher said some farmers are calling their fields a total loss and estimated across the High Plains half of the crop has been lost.

    While Fischbacher has heard reports of damage from other states, she also doesn’t expect consumers to see a price increase.

    “We have a stockpile of wheat,” Fischbacher said, “which should be able to supply a domestic market.”

    Farmers who want more information about crop damage and information as assessment of their crop can visit the website, wheatfreezeinjury.tamu.edu .


    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.