FYI all: May Wheat ecbot UP 90 CENT LIMIT as I type this. 32 K on the bid. Are you out of your mind? Short away, you can get the whole 32K bid. =] Raf
I wouldn't. I've been long repeatedly since June and every time this pig tops tons of people say, "It can't go any higher" and it does. Price will continue in one direction until it stops and reverses . . . no sign of that yet.
Would you really though? I mean assuming 32,000 Short, you'd be @ 1.6MM/Cent. One more limit move of 90 and you'd be down 144MM. 144mm/30BB = 4.8% of net worth on one more limit move. So, roughly $30 Wheat would wipe out your fortune.. Interesting numbers. What about when you want to cover? A great problem to have I suppose.....! Maybe Buffet or Gates could take it with their 42 - 50 BB. =] Raf
except for position limits could be a problem and if you had the brains to have 30B,would you risk it on wheat?
yea .. much better to buy the dips. practically speaking i'm very fearful of wheat. Every time i've tried to buy the dips, it turns into a bear. But being overlevered is my own error. in all seriousness, its not practical (to short) because no financially settled contracts are available (to my knowledge), making it a much more difficult market to manipulate.