I am about to short the crap out of wheat for a massive down move.... waiting for a bit of consolidation and possible wycoff into strong monthly resis, overlapping weekly and daily.... should get it down to at least 1070-80 on the march contract before finding support.
Shorted May and got long July @ -160 - it's safer with the spreads now imho - although this spread moved about 100 in the last few weeks.
Neither do I, but it is quite simple in fact. I had a look at the Daily chart with MACD histogram. Daily price action was locked in bull flag's range, towards the apex of that flag 240 chart has put in a classic Buy set-up (classic ImE as I specialise in MACD histo), it was very similar to what has recently happened in Gold when it BO of Daily pennant. Fundamental reasons in commodity markets are irrelevant to a certain degree as decisions can be made solely based on technicals.
low of day 1070 2/8.... Right at support got a good chunk on the downside closed out at 1075.. went long, closed just now at 1109 and now short again from 1109 with a tight, tight stop at 1114 they may get me on this short.. but the R:R is 6 to 1 after a retest of the highs or new highs.. will be looking to build a position for a multi month decline if market starts to reverse or show weakness...
Is wheats limit still 60c? or is back to 30c now? That realease is very unclear if it was permanent or not, and www.ecbot.com says the daily limit is 30.
Thanks.. Here: http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/cont_detail/0,3206,1322+14398,00.html it says it's 30c Those Idiots could cost someone a lot of money.