Hello Again. This hour exist the following News for Wheat: a) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...rop-may-fall-as-plantings-fail-to-sprout.html , b) http://www.agrimoney.com/news/fresh-downgrades-help-wheat-prices-extend-gains--5194.html . Kind Regards, George Kanellopoulos.
Hello Again. I have detect some other News for Wheat, but was not possible to put it here the last days, because of some problems that i had. Now, in the Inside Agriculture Report of Thomson Reuters of 09th November 2012, exist: ----- 1) Lower protein wheat persists in Australia, rains disrupt harvest Wheat gathered across the Australian east coast continues to show lower than average protein levels, traders said, while wet weather is slowing the harvest there, stoking concerns of a global shortage. The harvest in New South Wales and Queensland, the states that produce top quality hard wheat, contains less protein than usual, traders and farmers said, compounding expectations for lower national output. The development comes as the outlook for global wheat supply has been shaken by fears of export curbs by Russia and Ukraine, along with expectations of smaller crops in key producer Argentina. ----- 2) U.S. drought deepens in Plains states, wheat crop suffers Hot and dry conditions in parts of middle America deepened an ongoing drought in many states over the last week, according to a climatology report issued Thursday. October is typically the third-wettest month for Texas, but instead last month was the ninth-driest October statewide since 1895, according to the Drought Monitor report issued weekly by a consortium of state and federal climatology experts. Texas and Oklahoma both recorded above-normal temperatures and little or no rain. Kansas and Nebraska also saw drought expansion. The persistent drought was hindering growth of the new winter wheat crop in those states, as soil moisture levels were too low to spur normal plant development. Grazing for livestock was also poor as pastures remained parched. ----- Also, i have find and this: http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc3aca540d013ae86d8c950142 . Also, exist some serious Ideas for poor Winter Wheat Crop establishment and possible Winterkill Events at least for now, for U.S.A and Russia. Kind Regards, George Kanellopoulos.
Hello Again. Exist something very mysterious in the Wheat. In these News exist mention again for bumper India Wheat Stocks: http://www.world-grain.com/news/news home/LexisNexisArticle.aspx?articleid=1780476096&e= , in the Field of 40.58 Million Tonnes. But in these News: http://www.world-grain.com/news/news home/LexisNexisArticle.aspx?articleid=1779793138&e= , does not exist any closing Deal or any News for the selling of 2 Million Tonnes or more of Wheat from India to Iran, basically because of the presence of 'Karnal Bunt' rust in the Wheat samples. I have start to wonder a lot for the Quality of India Wheat. I wonder in which condition are these India 40.58 Million Tonnes Wheat Stocks. Anyway. Kind Regards, George Kanellopoulos.
Hello Again. This hour, i find these News for an Issue that i long wait, the Ethanol Mandate: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/13/usa-ethanol-idUSL1E8MD9CW20121113 . Again, No Decision. After this, i have start to believe that the Corn Price Gap of 676 Cents per Bushel, will be filled because of the drop in the Price of Soybeans anytime soon. If happen that, seems that the EPA at the End of November 2012 will not Waive the Ethanol Mandate. Meaning, that this "Weapon" will not use it for now and will keep it as a "Major Reserve" for the Future. Very difficult the Grains Markets as usual. Kind Regards, George Kanellopoulos.
Hi TraDaToR, What service did you use for the chart displayed on your first post (in the beginning of this thread)? Thanks.
IB TWS free charts. You have to choose "line" instead of candlesticks and add as many expiries as needed.
These posts are welcome but should be in an appropriately-named thread, not under "Wheat Curve". Wheat curve refers to the pattern of prices of different futures months relative to one another. Could you post further posts in a new thread titled "Quality of India wheat stocks" or whatever is the subject. Otherwise I and everyone else has to read the post to find out what it is about. Thanks for posting.
Hello everybody, attached a chart combining 3 products : 1. US SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT CIF US GULF BY BARGE 2. CME SRW Future H3 3. US NO2 SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT CIF NEW ORLEANS what I can learn from these are a few thing and please correct me if I wrong.. 1. the seasonality occur in JUN - AUG months where the elevators are full after harvest i.e Basis tends to 0 (e.g ; Aug 2010, Sep 2011 & Jul 2012). 2. in 2008/09 crop year , due to record harvest in SRW 641 MN bu there was a sharp fall in the basis below 0 along with the futures. 3. in 2010/11 with putin's export ban the futures + basis rallied to today's levels 353 $/T HRW FOB & 322$/T SRW FOB. 4. as we can in mid 2011 the SRW basis > HRW basis while the KC Wheat future gained a good future premium @ 141c. Wheat do you think of the HRW - SRW spread? What else can we learn from it?
Hello Again. Before, say anything, i want to ask you to forgive me, if exist any confuse to you from my Data that put here. Indeed this Topic create it for to cover a little, i guess, the importancy of Wheat Spreads, especially between the 3 Major U.S.A Exchanges, a) Chicago Board of Trade ( CBOT ), b) Kansas City Board of Trade ( KCBT ), c) Minneapolis Grain Exchange ( MGEX ). Wheat Spreads alone is a very big Issue. So, based and in your Words, i have find something after a tremendous long time of personal troubles, that makes me to be away from the Grains Markets. So, here is something, that published it in the Inside Agriculture Report of 7th December 2012, of Thomson Reuters. Here it is: ----- COLUMN-Minneapolis-Kansas wheat spread primed for a move By Gavin Maguire Minneapolis wheat may be about to awaken from its recent slumber and rebuild a premium over Kansas City wheat as buyers begin to opt for higher-protein grade wheat over lesser grade options and Kansas City wheat starts to lose some of its luster heading into the winter dormancy period. The Minneapolis-Kansas City spread recently narrowed to historic lows as K.C. wheat rode higher on concerns over dry field conditions across the central Plains. But with those drought fears now already baked in, traders are starting to turn focus toward the likelihood of spring wheat having to wage an acreage battle against corn and other crops in 2013 or risk production losses next year, which should allow for Minneapolis wheat to outperform Kansas wheat over the near to medium term. KANSAS LOSING STEAM Kansas wheat has enjoyed a strong price-run since early summer, when concerns over growing conditions in regions such as the Black Sea and Australia helped underpin higher-protein winter wheat grades in the United States and elsewhere. Kansas wheat then gained additional lift this fall, thanks to the enduring dry conditions throughout the central Plains which forced farmers to plant their crops in bone-dry fields. Indeed, while Minneapolis wheat prices may have remained at a premium to Kansas City wheat prices throughout 2012, K.C. wheat has clearly outperformed 'Minnie' wheat for the year as a whole, and remains more than 20 percent above its value at the start of the year compared to Minneapolis wheat's roughly 7 percent advance versus its Jan. 1 price. For a graphic on Kansas and Minneapolis price performance, click here http://pdf.reuters.com/pdfnews/pdfn..._87fa7a319ecb4c43911bb461b3bcc03a_PRIMARY.png For a graphic on Kansas vs Minneapolis wheat spread, click here http://pdf.reuters.com/pdfnews/pdfn..._26beed854b28456d98b3cc253d0debe7_PRIMARY.gif But the fact that Kansas City prices have failed to extend their gains over the past several weeks, even in the face of deteriorating winter wheat crop ratings, clearly suggests this market has run out of bullish momentum and is potentially at risk of losing ground over the coming weeks, as the winter wheat crop enters dormancy, now that the U.S. Department of Agriculture has stopped monitoring crop progress until the new year. http://pdf.reuters.com/pdfnews/pdfn..._5fbb95b00e2d4d3386e80446dd82688c_PRIMARY.png LARGE SPECULATORS TO TRIM KANSAS EXPOSURE In addition to facing a lack of fresh buying interest, Kansas City wheat is also at risk of encountering increased sell-side interest should large speculators follow their traditional trading patterns and trim net exposure to the market over the opening months of 2013, when the crop will emerge from dormancy and round out its growth stage. At the same time, speculative traders tend to maintain or increase their exposure to the Minneapolis wheat market over the first few months of the year to coincide with the U.S. spring acreage tussle that sees several key crops vie for planted area. Given the prevailing low levels of corn inventories following this year's poor growing season, corn looks especially likely to gain acreage in 2013 and could trigger an acreage battle among soybeans, spring wheat and other crops. For Seasonal graphic on large speculator net positions in Kansas and Minneapolis wheat, click here http://pdf.reuters.com/pdfnews/pdfn..._882a232662fd400db62ca35a57e2748c_PRIMARY.png PROTEIN BUYING UNDER WAY A final factor which looks to be working in favor of Minneapolis gaining ground relative to Kansas wheat has been the recent upturn in Minneapolis export basis levels and simultaneous softening in Kansas export basis levels. This trend has only been under way for the past few days, but it suggests that the recent narrowing in the price spread between the two commodities has triggered increased interest in protein rich Minneapolis wheat over Kansas City wheat which has lower overall protein content. For a a graphic on Minneapolis and Kansas City export basis levels click here http://pdf.reuters.com/pdfnews/pdfn..._b23b9d172d0f4403bc71923d1302a970_PRIMARY.gif This divergence in basis trends may not last too long should Minneapolis wheat prices undergo a steep rally relative to Kansas wheat. But as long as the price differential between the two remains close to its currently narrow levels, consumers can be expected to opt for the higher-grade Minneapolis supplies over their Kansas-based counterpart. --Gavin Maguire is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own-- ----- Kind Regards, George Kanellopoulos.
It does not belong in this thread, which is on the Wheat Curve It would be much better if you put this is a new thread called "Wheat Spreads across Exchanges" or whatever. Putting in here forces me to read it because I am interested in posts on the Wheat Curve, which your post is NOT about. The only other alternative is to block seeing all of your posts completely.