hello, I am guessing that I have received the same technical charting report from CIS called "Price Perceptions". That said, I know some people put much emphasis on their charting recommendations, but I do not. I believe the Fed's QE3 program ignites buying that will affect many commodities as people try to manage inflation risk. In the weeks/months to come, I believe this will provide some support as the USD is devalued. Corn: Why did you get long dec corn at 775 while you still believe there is a possibility of retesting 697? Maybe I trade on a much shorter time-frame, but geez that is quite a drawdown! The rationing years of 1988 and 1995 had the dec-march corn spread trading down to 8-12 cent carry eventually. The 1983 demand rationing year saw the dec-march spread trade 2 cents either side of even money from october through december. While harvest pressure may increase farmer selling, dec illinois processor bids are well above DVE. I think trade will eventually look for a wider July -Dec13 inverse on old crop tightness. This same idea applies to dec12-dec13. Wheat: I agree with your fundamental thoughts on wheat. Only thing I will add is that I hear that people are very concerned over the australian crop. Some forecasts i have read are 6 mmt below the USDA estimate. Lastly I note that usually US winter wheat crop is 50% planted by October. Dry conditions over the US HRW belt over the next two weeks are increasingly problematic. I'm tired, so I am not going to write about beans, but I might write more tomorrow. I often view the CZ-WZ spread to see where wheat is trading relative to corn, and in that sense CBOT wheat has had quite a run. What wheat spreads are you trading?
Hello Again. First, i have to say, that i am Subscriber to the Price Perceptions Report from the CIS Company for to see especially the Fundamentals. The Technical Charts there, does not fulfill at all from time to time. But i am thinking some of them when i see it and from a Fundamental Point. For CBOT Corn, one of the Price Targets that i have, is the 676 Cents per Bushel, not the 697. Now, for Wheat i have to say that i have a tremendous focus in one Long Spread, but when tried to "touch" it, it was so unliquid and then got other, a little back of it. After a little time Period started to open Positions to it, too. I have the following Open Positions to Wheat: 1) Long Kansas City Board of Trade ( KCBT ) Wheat March 2013 / Short Chicago Board of Trade ( CBOT ) March 2013, 2) Long Kansas City Board of Trade ( KCBT ) Wheat May 2013 / Short Chicago Board of Trade ( CBOT ) May 2013. My basic focus is in the May 2013. I believe that exist a chance for a very big raise of it. I will tell you something else possible above than "crazy" and above than "mad". I believe something for Russia. If does not make anytime soon Wheat Export Restrictions, will enforced it to do that, from the Situations that possibly will occur the Next Year, around March or April 2013. That it will not be relative basically to their Wheat Crop Conditions but, because, i have a feel that will involved into a serious War. Does not likes me the Geopolitical Situation in Syria, Turkey and also here in Greece. I believe that Vladimir Putin is a serious Leader. But seems, that he will make a tremendous serious mistake. Because, he want to avoid possible bad comments, that Russia will not honor their Wheat Exports like 2008, and because Russia now is in WTO ( World Trade Organization ), leave the Russia to continue to make Wheat Exports in frenzy rhythm. Also, if does not receive Russia good Precipitation in their Winter Whear Crop Areas in the next 10 Days will start other troubles. A Good Leader always must have their Mind to have enough Food their People first, in the most worst case scenario/a, and then to make Exports. Kind Regards, George Kanellopoulos.
Interesting posts, Jtmalu. Do you actually trade Dalian futures or is it just for the sake of understanding global supply/demand in soy products? I know it's now possible for foreigners to trade Chinese markets but I am not sure for ags.
I use the Dalian data to monitor the worlds biggest soybean importer. George, I am trying to understand the following: " 2) Long Kansas City Board of Trade ( KCBT ) Wheat May 2013 / Short Chicago Board of Trade ( CBOT ) May 2013. My basic focus is in the May 2013. I believe that exist a chance for a very big raise of it. I will tell you something else possible above than "crazy" and above than "mad". I believe something for Russia. If does not make anytime soon Wheat Export Restrictions, will enforced it to do that, from the Situations that possibly will occur the Next Year, around March or April 2013. That it will not be relative basically to their Wheat Crop Conditions but, because, i have a feel that will involved into a serious War. Does not likes me the Geopolitical Situation in Syria, Turkey and also here in Greece. I believe that Vladimir Putin is a serious Leader. But seems, that he will make a tremendous serious mistake. Because, he want to avoid possible bad comments, that Russia will not honor their Wheat Exports like 2008, and because Russia now is in WTO ( World Trade Organization ), leave the Russia to continue to make Wheat Exports in frenzy rhythm. Also, if does not receive Russia good Precipitation in their Winter Whear Crop Areas in the next 10 Days will start other troubles." You believe Russia will impose some kind of export restriction because of serious war concerns in March or April of 2013? What makes you think there will be a war??
Hello Again. Just end some huge readings and must go for some sleep, i guess. Very badly "kill" me the Soybeans early today. Hammer it very bad, and then the Corn Price collapse too. Also, seems that a prediction for a possible Precipitation to Brazil affect the Market, too. I find this Article: http://www.blackseagrain.net/about-...asts-for-rains-ease-fears-for-brazil-soy-crop . We will see if finally get some Precipitation, Brazil. For Russia is a long discussion. I believe that serious things will occur the next months around here. Right now, have start serious Geopolitical Issues. In Syria exist War. In Turkey exist War from Kurdish "Rebels" that want to create their State. I believe that because of these serious things, Turkey can export their internal crisis into Greece. Right now, Greece, get tremendous hits from that evil union that is Member, EU. Also, Greece, have collapsed in the Political, Economical and the most important in the Ethical Field from many bad things that happen hear the last Years. I believe that finally Turkey can make a military move against Greece anytime soon, which will make Russia to intervene against Turkey and to start a serious War. That possibly will happen the next Year, because i believe, that will exist anytime soon here a Political Chaos. That Political Chaos will take advantage of Turkey and will attack against Greece. Greece, is the most important Country in the World from the Side of Geopolitics from one only Reason. It is the only Country in the World that is a quadrivial of 3 Continents. Europe, Asia and Africa. Also, are the Americans so stupid that have Naval Base in Suda, the Greek Island of Crete ? USA, have possibly, the most powerful military Power from any other Country in this Planet in Navy Power. Have Navy Fleets in many places of the World. From the Sea, transport it the 90% of the World Trade. But with my small opinion, USA is a tremendous Super Power in something else, the most important. Grains Trading. Produce it and Export it huge Quantities of Strategical Grains, like Corn, Soybeans and Wheat. Anyway, we will see... Kind Regards, George Kanellopoulos.
Hello Again. The last 2 Days have involved a lot to find some things relative to Weather of South America. The Coming Crop Year of Corn & Soybeans will be very important there. Now, even that, i am this hour dead beat and sleepless, i find additional psychological strenght to search a little my Favorities in my Internet Explorer, were i had put some things there relative to Weather Data Resources from the deep past after extended personal Internet search. Again, i must say, that are Free Sources. Weather Data Subscriptions to Private Frims cost a lot of Money. With Free Sources can exist some economy to that Field. Here then some interesting Links: 1) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/gl_obs.shtml , ( Choose in the Upper Left Page the American Moonsoons for North & South America. ) 2) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/index.html , 3) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ . Kind Regards, George Kanellopoulos.
Hello Again. Last Friday, i believe that a serious Article occurs for Wheat in the Thomson Reuters Inside Agriculture Report of 28th September 2012. I decide to put it here: ---------- COLUMN-Higher U.S. wheat plantings likely - and needed Stubbornly high prices have served to keep U.S. wheat out of contention on the export market in recent months, but a broad jump in U.S. winter wheat seedings coupled with growth in overseas interest could serve to make U.S. wheat more competitive going into 2013. It's no surprise that farmers in top hard red wheat states such as Kansas are upping their planted area of the crop this year, but growers across the eastern Corn Belt seem to be getting in on the act too, with Illinois, Indiana and Ohio farmers all reportedly sowing more winter wheat in 2012 than in recent years to set the stage for a large bump in U.S. wheat supplies come 2013. Thanks to crop production issues overseas, however, those additional supplies could prove to be a boon and not a hindrance. OVERPRICED, OR JUST AHEAD OF ITS TIME? It's easy to see why the pace of U.S. wheat export sales has been sluggish over the past few months when you compare the price of U.S. export-ready wheat to that of wheat supplies from other regions. Good quality U.S. wheat has consistently traded at around a $25-40 per metric ton premium over similar grade wheat available out of France, and at an even larger premium over Russian and Ukrainian supplies. Even U.S. soft red wheat has traded at a premium to French wheat, meaning that would-be buyers would have to pay more for lesser quality supplies. And these price differentials don't even factor in the higher freight costs tied to shipping grain from the U.S. versus from Europe to top importing regions such as the Middle East and Africa. For a graphic of U.S. versus exporter wheat prices, click here ( 1 ) Given that U.S. wheat inventories can hardly be considered tight at more than 18 million tons (and more than 50 percent of total projected U.S. consumption for the coming year) the reason for the persistent relative strength in U.S. wheat values is not immediately obvious. Solid U.S. interior wheat basis levels reveal a supportive element has been in play in the U.S. cash market, where livestock feeders have reportedly been upping their wheat purchases in a bid to scale back corn market exposure. But given that both soft and hard red wheat futures have held a premium to corn futures since mid-May - and that those premiums recently widened to more than $1.40 per bushel for soft wheat and $1.65 for hard - price- sensitive feedlot managers are unlikely to be the only wheat buyers out there. Further, domestic feed demand is unlikely to account for the firm basis levels being seen at U.S. Gulf export terminals, which determine the ultimate price tag on U.S. wheat shipments overseas. U.S. Gulf basis for hard red wheat recently scaled the highest levels on record of close to $1.20 per bushel, even as the overall sales pace of that grade of wheat has been slow. For a graphic of U.S. wheat basis trends, click here ( 2 ) This divergence in trends between the firm tone of basis levels and lackluster pace of sales hints that another reason aside from fundamental demand may be responsible for propping up U.S. wheat values at the present time. SIT AND WAIT A number of factors could be in play to maintain the upward lift on wheat basis levels even in the face of slow overseas demand. At the farmer level, the short corn and soybean crops currently being retrieved from parched U.S. fields have left room in onfarm storage bins for additional crops that in most years would have been cleared out by now. In addition, there is a less precipitous drop-off in forward wheat values than there is in the corn market, meaning that farmers have a strong incentive to offload their corn supplies immediately but can afford to sit on their wheat inventory for the time being. For a graphic of wheat versus corn forward curves, click here ( 3 ) That option to store wheat rather than sell it is also popular at the processor and strategic trader level, with both those parties being fully aware of the crop production problems seen this year in top exporting regions such as the Black Sea. They and other market trackers expect that sizeable disruption to export shipments from that or other exporting regions would quickly set the stage for an uptick in U.S export interest, even if U.S. prices maintain their premium to other origins. In addition, wheat processors and long-term traders will be aware of the fact that it could take several more months before any shortage of grain from the Black Sea region translates into firmer U.S. prices, as overall inventories of wheat in top importing areas remains fairly high. But over time, and especially if Australian growers continue to suffer from a lack of rainfall, a sense of supply shortness is likely to merge among wheat importers which could easily trigger a drive for imports from farther afield, such as the United States. STRATEGIC OPPORTUNISTS? Farmers currently wrapping up their 2012 corn and soybean harvests and beginning their 2012/13 winter wheat plantings are unlikely to be as focused on the upside potential for the wheat market as other market trackers. And yet the anecdotal evidence of widespread winter wheat sowing from across the Corn Belt and through the Southeast suggests they are fully aware of the potential opportunities for a strong wheat market rally over the coming months. Certainly, many growers are merely planting wheat because they always do so during the present time slot, and are perhaps able to seed a few additional acres this year thanks to the early corn harvest and friendly fall weather. But other growers are no doubt making a strategic bet that wheat prices will undergo a stretch of sustained price strength going into 2013 after the shortfalls of the U.S. corn and soybean crops force global grain end users to increase consumption rates of wheat and other crops. For an interactive graphic U.S. wheat production by state and type, click here ( 4 ) Only time will tell exactly how many additional winter wheat acres U.S. farmers will sow this year as planting is still under way. But early signs are that American farmers intend to increase wheat production across the country this year in a bid to capitalize on the prevailing high prices available. For end users of the crop, such a climb in output will prove to be a welcome development, even if they don't currently like the look of U.S. export prices. --- Gavin Maguire, Reuters market analyst --- The views expressed are his own ( 1 ) http://pdf.reuters.com/pdfnews/pdfn..._435ec8a86e7749f09717ff4839ac1a95_PRIMARY.gif , ( 2 ) http://pdf.reuters.com/pdfnews/pdfn..._c698b85a92fd49819e23f59ff840facd_PRIMARY.gif , ( 3 ) http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/GJM/WhtCornCurves.GIF , ( 4 ) http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/GJM/USWheat.html . ---------- Kind Regards, George Kanellopoulos.