2.0 seems to be also a 200 moving average area, which I believe tends to be resistance or support. You can see above is both EMA and SMA 200 moving average. Tomorrow we have natural gas economic numbers, so will see, maybe something will happen near there and we'll get a bounce back from it. Also, below is an FX Empire article about the 200 moving average. They're bullish overall on nat gas though: https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/...-natural-gas-markets-continue-breakout-659762 And here is the monthly chart for nat gas. Looks very good in my opinion for a long term investment. We might easily see 4.0 or 3.0 in the near future:
Based on supply and demand. lots of supply as economy is in contraction. it was weak or oversupply even before the corvid 19 mostly restaurants use natural gas and 1/3 of resturants are closed. or 50% of compacity. as for electricity used by natural gas, there is not that much demand for electricity too. the gov't not interested in rigging or pumping price of oil and natural gas. like in the equity markets. people don't complain when their paper profits are paper profits are up. and everybody is happy on paper. reality there is too much natural gas from oversupply from too much investment in oil shale and the free market correcting itself like it should. the gov't is not involved. or is it..it was the gov't 'policy' 'for the US to be oil sufficient. so they allowed oil fracking etc. and over investment in the sector and all losses now. that is free market capitalism at work and superior to communism. if you dont make money doing something you shut it down. like in trading,,,you close shop. or stop trading and exit. why do people trade when they keep losing money? it's a hobby for seniors to 'play the market' and lots of seniors in casinos,and 90% of lottery players are seniors cause they have nothing better to do and don't mind a economic shut down. same with gov't they have nothing to lose except small business and workers who are the producers and workers who create GDP. Gov't as an entity is parasite in the economic system and actually destroys wealth via wars or other incompetency like Trump failure to contain the virus and 6 months of economic shutdown..business going bankrupt and people hafe to rely on 'welfaree' corporate welfare.
I would wait until "everything is aligned": It looks (from the COT) that Funds and CTAs are still short or at least not very long yet. And I don't see the usual Commercial COT activity (which is weird) during a bottom. Even if usually the bottom is reached between July and August, I think we could see a retracement or more to the 1.730 to 1.690. Good trades!
It was in the positive this morning before the natural gas economic report, then it started heading down. Might very well go down further from here.
If price breaks down there might be resistance and reversal around 200 moving average 2 hrs chart. Has been obeying that recently:
This seems wrong.... Do they really think it could get to 1.25 or are they just covering their asses? I don't recall ever seeing preemptive warnings like this.
That's interesting. I don't have much experience in this so can't comment if it's normal. But it's concerning to me as someone who's interested to go long on nat gas. That statement from TD Ameritrade is specific to nat gas, with precise price numbers, so they put some thought into it and it seems not a generic statement. It makes me concerned at the moment where you should be going long on it they might choose to close your position, possibly at a loss if you got in at a higher price. Maybe they're afraid of a crash like in WTI. And if they go through with something like this might it cause the price to go down further?