Electric utilities all set their avoided coat rates on long term forecasts of natural gas costs. In practice they are almost always wrong, often wildly so when it gets past a year or so. That's especially the case now with fracking where high gas prices have an almost immediate impact on supply since its so easy for any Chuck with a truck to set it up or restart a fracking operation. While I wouldn't consider the utilities the smartest people in the room, there are several hundred of them that collectively apply an awful lot of brain power and research dollars into cracking that nut and consistently fail pretty miserably. So based on that I think it's just a really hard thing to predict. Maybe look at a strategy of doing the opposite of what they do? Their record is so bad maybe it's predictive?