I think most of us agree that this is likely a bear rally and that once the market is over it will continue its downtrend. If so, you probably did like me and went long since the bottom. So what's your target? Taking Nasdaq 100 (I know many trade ES, I do too, but I think Nasdaq is stronger right now so I'm trading NQ), the top before the recent down leg was 1973. The bottom 1196. If it recovers half of that, it would be 1584. I think it will reach that and do more. What about you? If it recovers 2/3, that would be 1714. I think this is realistic.
If the ES could trade above 1050 I will be looking for Long Term SHORT entries again.....in the mean time we are in intraday trading territory only imo. I have minimal faith in these type rallies, so I have already dumped 80% of my Rydex 200% S&P500 positions I had accumulated the last three days........take the money and run!
10300 is in the neighborhood of a 66% retrace, and i really think people will get just excited enough to push over 10k. I would be suprised if it does a shallower pullback after such a steep move. Speculation of course, and I am only trading intraday anyways.
FWIW......10,300 on the Dow Jones is the low from September, a "logical" place for resistance. We'll see.
ES touched 1050 exactly tonight and is now down trading around 1040......as the ES peaks its head above 1050 I will start to actively look for SHORT entry signals.