Discussion in 'Forex' started by Daal, Oct 8, 2008.
I would like to hear other people's opinion on this one
The outlook is, that no one can predict this. Any opinions gathered are entirely useless, and will be of no help in trading.
Stop trying to be an economist and trade what you see.
The Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real and Russian Rouble are under strong pressure - that will help in exports, but of course be bad with regards to multi-nationals originated in the emerging markets, or those who manufacture based on imports. For US based multi-nationals with largely free activities in such emerging markets - it is very helpful and helps keeping their costs down in these difficult times.
I see the USD strengthening as a mix of repatriation and an attempt to buy time for acting in the markets.
I think - at least for Brazil - they are quite comfortable, even used to such volatility. Brazil is very closed off with regards to doing business here though, and difficult to get money out from the country.
The Cuban Convertible Peso * (CUC) is holding up very well against the USD.
* Not to be confused with the Cuban Peso (CUP)
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