First of all, the only bottoms I want to pick are when I ride the subway, and that's more of a subtle brush followed by a sincere excuse me. Now on to business.. It seems hard for me to believe that if someone calls in sick at company x and it opens down 50% the next day that we could call this a bottom. If you are dead set on thinking this is a bottom, you may miss some opportunities. However, things always seem bad before they get really f'ed up. Here is what I noticed today, causing me to do the chicken run from some of my shorts. The tick seemed pretty high today, relative to all the selling. If anyone has an explanation for this, I would like to hear it. Some junk bond funds started to turn up, which may lead a short rally. Or there are a lot of Junior Warren Buffets running around. About 50% of the companies out there, maybe less after today are at or near their 200 day moving average, although this reached 20% in Sept. Short levels are getting pretty high. Bottom line though, just like Madonna, Im playing both sides for now. Although I have been scaling into some longs via etfs and may just take a month or two off and come back in Sept.
Hey Lundy... Stocks Careen to 1997 Lows By Denise Duclaux NEW YORK (Reuters) - Major U.S. stock gauges slammed to lows unseen since 1997 on Wednesday after Qwest Communications International Inc. inflamed worries over corporate accounting and Standard & Poor's booted a handful of companies from its prestigious Its stupid to predict in this market...just be ready to jump in either way....heres why. The market is fuelled now more than ever before by news. To say that the market will go this way or that is something none of us can do with long term accuracy at this point in time. Why? Do you know if and when Bin Laden will be captured? Do you know when the US will invade Iraq? Do you know if the Israel Palestine thing will erupt into war? Do you know which major companies have accounting 'discrepencies'? The answer is no. So dont even pretend to know, you are simply wasting our time and effort on this board.
Yes, you can pick the bottom. The problem is - by the time you get to it - you don't have that many fingers left anymore.
This is getting more and more funny! Lundy, can you pick bottoms and tops on intraday basis? U can B REACH! UGLY REACH! Make 25 points on SP eminis every day! Why do you post here? We are stupid morons, and you're a trading genius, so I guess we can't understand each other. You'll be the first member I IGNORE here. Regardless of what will happen in the markets ( nasdaq 5000 yeaaaah! )
Bottoms can be picked but one may lose many a fortune trying to do so! In other words, bottom picking can be both a very lucrative strategy and a very risky one. A wall street trader I know lost 15 grand in a single day and told me that he thought it would be the end of his career (he bottom picked a few very volatile stocks one day). Luckily, the following week , he had a 20 grand plus day so it sort of evened out. I wouldn't really pick bottoms except in cases where one believes the market can do nothing BUT bounce (as in the case of enron stock trading at .28 low.....i actually picked up a shitload at 28 cents and sold it at 1.08....made a nice profit). The fibonnaci retracement is generally one third so when you see a stock decline by 6 dollars in a very short period of time, you ABSOLUTELY KNOW that there will be some significant rebound. I think that in such cases, one can bottom pick. I wouldn't suggest it to anyone as a common practice, however, since stocks can generally decline to as little as .01, theoretically! Of course, i speak from my limited experience with the markets so read what i say but generally take it as a grain of salt...LOL