what's your Jack Hershey trading system win/loss ratio ?

It really surprises me anybody asks about Jack Hershey's methods, and never have a look at the threads about it under my name. Every part of the MACD Stochastic momentum driven indicator is available on Wealth Lab Pro, which is the only platform that has backtested as succesfully as advertised. Have Code, could post, but set for .SPX 5 Minute Bars.

Here is Jack Hershey's Algorithm:

var lbar,bar : integer;

var val1 : integer = 5;
var val2 : integer = 13;
var val3 : integer = 6;
var HersheyStochK2 : integer = StochDSeries(5, 2);
var HersheyStochD2 : integer = SMASeries(HersheyStochK2, 3);
var HersheyStochK : integer = StochDSeries(14, 1);
var HersheyStochD : integer = SMASeries(HersheyStochK, 3);

for Bar := 5 to BarCount - 1 do
begin



if (bar>lbar+2) and (gettime(bar)<1545) then begin
if not (lastpositionactive) and (crossovervalue(bar,HersheyStochK,50) ) and (@#Volume[bar-1]>20000) then begin
{ if (@MACDH[bar]>0) then }buyatmarket(Bar+1,'Jacks friend scott d says to buy here');
end;
if not (lastpositionactive) and (crossundervalue(Bar,HersheyStochK,50)) and (@#Volume[bar-1]>20000) then begin
{ if (@MACDH[bar]<0) then }shortatmarket(Bar+1,'Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here');
end;
if (positionlong(lastposition)) and (@HersheyStochK[bar]<@HersheyStochD[bar]) and (crossundervalue(Bar,HersheyStochK,80)) then begin
sellatmarket(Bar+1,LastPosition,'');
end;
if (positionshort(lastposition)) and (@HersheyStochK[bar]>@HersheyStochD[bar]) and (crossovervalue(Bar,HersheyStochK,20)) then begin
coveratmarket(Bar+1,lastposition,'');
end;
if (positionlong(lastposition)) and (abs(@HersheyStochD[bar])<1.4) then begin sellatmarket(Bar+1,LastPosition,''); end;
if (positionshort(lastposition)) and (abs(@HersheyStochD[bar])<1.4) then begin coveratmarket(Bar+1,LastPosition,''); end;
if (positionlong(lastposition)) and (lastbar(bar)) then begin sellatclose(Bar,lastposition,'');end;
if (positionshort(lastposition)) and (lastbar(bar)) then begin coveratclose(Bar,lastposition,'');end;

end;
if lastbar(bar) then begin
lbar:=bar;
end;
end;

Note this is in Wealth Lab Developer 4.5, not Pro, use translator to create new updated version.

 

What the heck, people that would crawl through broken glass and declare complete obedience to the Great Jack are who he's looking for. That is what the NlP jibberish is about...

I did figure out what an FTT is and I quit trying to follow JH after that.. Without using the RGR or GRG signals on the two minute bars I'd say that FTT's by themselves might be good entries at the beginning of a trend maybe more than half the time but there can be a lot of churn when they fail and they can fail up to three times in a row when the reversal signal turns into a continuation signal... and on a day like the 1987 crash where people kept buying the dips until they blew out their accounts hershey's FTT reversal traders are going to follow suit...

Gains might be four times losses and it's hard to automate... speaking of which, why would people want to go with stuff that was developed before and at the dawn of the PC?? The trading environments that are available today are astoundingly rich with useful tools and automation is there for anybody that can learn to write a script... nearly all that is needed in the way of basic knowledge was already published by the 1920's...

I remember that Clint Eastwood western movie where the ghost of the sheriff came into town and they hired him to help fight off the bad gang guys that were on the way. He put them to work doing all sorts of things and they painted the whole town red or something and then the bad guys came and took over the place anyhow or something.. Jack H reminds me of that movie for some reason... He has all the chicken-little townsfolk out painting the town and wondering what he will do next...

 

Here is the problem with your question on the philosophical/logical level:

Let's say X people respond with X very different results. What does it tell you?
Pretty much nothing. Why? Because they most likely interpreted the rules in X very different ways and of course there is the psychology of trading too.

You could only get a semi statisfying answer if the X responders' results were fairly similar. Of course, it is still possible that they still missused the system (assuming X is a rather small number), but they did it in a way, that their results are still similar.

So was this approach adult like for you???

TL;DR : Unless you get a statistically significant number of responses with similar results (highly unlikely) your question is doomed to fail...

 

Two have gotten back to me.

One started trading with real money in March after 9 months of practice. He said he is still building his confidence and that is way his win rate is low but hits a 65% win rate and a 1:2 R/R ratio. He said he has about 4 to 6 trades a day.

The other said he has been trading SCT for about 3 years and after a year of practice get 8+ points a day with a 80% win rate.

Both of these guys are simple retail traders not large scale insitutional traders.

More power to them but I repeat, I can't trade it. It still makes my head hurt.

 

I guess your question doesn't apply to Hershey's SCT because, as he stated, his approach isn't probabilistic. He trades what there is, and not what there might happen or not.

 

I agree.

Wallace, Jack's program hasn't been programmed so I don't know of an objective way to test it. Maybe it has but I don't know of the existance of such a program. This means your choice is to either try to wade through the information and see what you can test on our own or find another path.

My philosophy is that if you can't test it (plug a wire into it), then find something you can. Life is way too short to try to learn the Hershey language on your own.

 

Such claims don't seem congruent with what I inferred from Hershey's posts I've read, and they kind of make you wonder.

 

If you were trying to be funny, you actually hit the nail on the head and how odd is that.

Jack trades, bar by bar so when you are dealing with 2 minute bars (as an example), you can have multiple decisions just within ten minutes. These decisions can be predicted, this is something you have to watch, bar by bar, to be able to take advantage of in real time. This is the exact reason this method makes my head hurt. OUCH!

 

+1000

 

For better or worse,everything was going on not that bad until the ''hold and reverse'' point.Also,to me,it turned out a good method for the midterm trades and not so good for the timing trades.The lower the timeframe,more failed fractals you`ll get.