Ok, you got me. It's not refutable in the technical sense because it's not falsifiable. But let's skip that part because I think we both know there's no real conversation to be had there. What I do believe to be true is that people who have the necessary tools to achieve success in a merit-based marketplace will succeed if they have been honest with themselves about their goals. So people who want to be pop stars are excluded because they're not playing on a level field. Randomness IS huge for them. People who buy a portfolio of mutual funds, only to see it underperform, brought a knife to a gunfight. While it's sad that they've been duped by CNBC, they didn't do their homework. So, while I still love the quote, what I really take from it is this: "If you have the tools and the environment necessary to succeed, and you do not, it is because you don't want to." Thanks for the good response. (And yes, it's Seykota, who could potentially be rightfully accused of desiring guru status.)
Basis/Nattdog Depending on perspective, you are both correct IMO. Maybe it would have been more accurate if Seykota had said: most people get what they subconsciously want from the market.
One day I will beat this market at its own game. ( this is my own quote and I strongly believe in it )
"To succeed as a King you must first succeed as a man". Henry VIII of England on his deathbed to his son. Although remembered for obesity and six wives, in his youth Henry was both an athlete and a brilliant scholar. Note this relates to a point I made elsewhere that you have to overcome the [internal] barriers to success faced by all in all fields as well as the trading specific ones. Disclosure: Not there yet
"When people say the market is overvalued and there's a bubble, whatever that means, they're talking about a handful of stocks. Most of these stocks are reasonably priced. There's no reason for them to correct violently anytime in the year 2000." -Larry Wachtel, Market analyst for Prudential Securities on Moneyline Dec. 23 1999.
11 pages of quotes and we haven't gotten to my favorite yet: [approaching the New York Commodities Exchange] Louis Winthorpe III: Think big, think positive, never show any sign of weakness. Always go for the throat. Buy low, sell high. Fear? That's the other guy's problem. Nothing you have ever experienced will prepare you for the absolute carnage you are about to witness. Super Bowl, World Series - they don't know what pressure is. In this building, it's either kill or be killed. You make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners. One minute you're up half a million in soybeans and the next, boom, your kids don't go to college and they've repossessed your Bentley. Are you with me? ------------------ Aaron Schindler Schindler Trading
In terms of shorting, most systems just simply do not work. Shorting is not the opposite of going long. In fact, short-term long-only mean reversion systems often do better in bear markets than bull markets. Its never healthy to fade passion, but punishing fear is usually worthwhile. - James Altucher
either throw it against the wall and see how it feels or dont look back both quoted from CRT position manager