yea, well, whatever. you say my backtesting method sucks. fine, you got a better one? o you do, but can't share it with us? the "debate" is over.
IMO : Everyone's ' perception ' is different . Everything changes , always . No matter how much we try , we will never be able to see things exactly as anyone else . The best we can hope for is to gleen knowledge from what one sees fit to share . This is simply my ' perception ' of how things are . Besta , pd . ps - EVERY HUMAN MAKES THEIR OWN CHAINS .
Here is an indicative backtesting research: Over the whole Nasdaq 100 database, from Jan2000 till now, settings buy/sell/short/cover at Open, delay +1, commission 0.5% the total % Net profit was a flat +5%. The Morning/Evening star are impressive buy not that profitable in the long term. Some stocks [like FLEX or CIEN] were interesting [>+400%] but the general outlook was not important. Here is the AFL code // MORNING STAR v29= CdWhite(0.1) AND Ref(CdDoji(0.1),-1) AND Ref(CdBlack(0.1),-2) AND Ref(O,-1)<Ref(C,-2) AND O > Ref(C,-1); // EVENING STAR v28 = CdBlack(0.1) AND Ref(CdDoji(0.1),-1) AND Ref(CdWhite(0.1),-2) AND Ref(O,-1)>Ref(C,-2) AND O < Ref(C,-1); // EXIT DELAYS x=Optimize("x",19,1,20,2); y=Optimize("y",19,1,20,2); // TRADING RULES Buy=V29;// BUY WITH A MORNING STAR Sell=Ref(Buy,-x);// SELL X BARS LATER Short=V28;// SHORT WITH AN EVENING STAR Cover=Ref(Short,-y);// COVER Y BARS LATER As you probably agree, it is meaningless to wait more than 20 trading bars. Both above formations are much advertised, they are attractive to watch but the only happy person is my broker.
http://premium.working-money.com/wm/display.asp?art=375 accessable if you register for free trial at traders.com
in the latest issue of S&C there's Nison's interview where he says that candlesticks are discretionary and can't be backtested with timed exits. that is because targets are determined in a discretionary way by looking an next S/R, etc. and then if the risk/reward is good then the trade is taken. so basically candlesticks can't be traded mechanically unless you add a boatload of filters.
NihabaAshi, Now that we're in a seemingly little bull run of some sorts, have your favorite intraday candle patterns changed? Mahalo, Hapaboy
Hi Hapaboy, I got your private message and will respond in your initial thread on Intraday Candlesticks... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=23219 I'm a little slow this morning out of the gate and I need to respond to a few emails first. Talk to you later...hopefully I post a reply in the above thread before the open. NihabaAshi
Agree, "candles can't be traded mechanically...". My best use of candles involves any kind of "star" or englufing pattern at daily chart support/resistance. I mostly ignore other candle patterns which occur more-or-less mid range.