I don't disagree that "always in" is a viable approach, I just disbelieve, strongly, that it can earn anyone 3-6X the daily range. At that point, a trader would be so far beyond what anyone else earns that it would be fair to say that trader was not of the same species as other traders. It would be like comparing a man to an amoeba.
The only thing I don't understand is why you wouldn't want to take a trade off if you witnessed the third peak (in the example). The demonstratrion of a higher low, and then a break of the previous peak would demonstrate the markets desire to rise wouldn't it? It sounds like your stats show (at least for Crude) that you shouldn't lower your stop till you have a lower low. The strategy I'm working on works best for ES/NQ and esp TF.
You are right it is a statistical finding ... what it says is there are enough ABC pullbacks with later continuation that it doesn't pay to freak out & move the stop above A once price has done AB & starts going for C (or a reversal) - unless B is a DB/DT or near-miss of that (I use 95% retest as my threshold).
Sure, with perfect entries you can indeed maximize your profit by staying in the market all the time. Problem is that your entries are never perfect. The probability that the market goes in adverse direction increases linearly with the time in market. So you should go out of the market well before the next entry for minimizing exposure to risk. With about 30 strategies that I tested meanwhile, 10%..20% market exposure usually gave the best results. For early exiting, do not use profit targets. A better method is to increase the stop loss level by a certain fixed amount over time.
Would you mind constructing (or just copy your present data recording device) a suitable data sheet you would like me to fill in? For may years I have asked for such and, so far, no one has responded. When I first came here there were very negative comments about my broker records. One person thought he proved they were not real. I have also has serious negative reactions from IRS supervisors who do not understand how brokers report to their clients. The SEC still feels that I am some kind of cheat. Here it is suggested there is a possibility that I am inhuman. At the UCSC, another division did seek permission to have me examined in many ways. My Alma Mater suggested I could pursue any major without difficulty after they examined me extensively. So I did alot of different things quite well. With respect to my suggestion, I feel that any person with the character of the OP might grow critically if he were to strengthen greatly all of his visons of what an entry is (either long or short). I believe my trading is enhanced by my knowing all the entries that are possible. Since I do, I only trade using a hold/reversal stratgy in my systems. Finally, in the financial industry, the slower manner of investing, does take into account as a concern that you need to be in a market to take the market's offer. In AZ, we have government sponsored gambling. (We also have tribal venues as well). Both organizational structures emphasize that to win at gambling, you have to play. Essentially, there is common agreement that if you are on the sidelines, there is a reason. The el primo reason is called in CW "risk" and it is paralleled with "money management". Both themes relate to trader ignorance. If ignorance prevails, then entering is not a good idea. I concluded, that the OP did enter and I gave him full credit for his entries. I made a suggestion that built upon his existing knowledge and, noreso, his implicit "consciousness". I know by training that the mind does consciousness (think of awareness if your mind's operation is foreign to you) and it does so by comparisons and NOT any other way. So for each bar, doing the same comparison would be like: Is that an entry? Is that an entry? Is that an entry? Is that an entry? Is that an entry? So one might come along. then: Is it opposite of my hold? No, then hold longer. Yes, then take profits AND also begin to make more money. I eliminate the insane targetting and the insane setting of stops. Neither make money. to become proficient a person must learn how to take the market's full offer. The OP and some other posters cannot post all the entries (A small finite list)
I am not like other traders. Read what I write and prove it to yourself. Since I am not like other traders, I do NOT get results like other traders. You automatically stated (it is your commonly shared nature with others so to do) what I do as you did what I do always. I compare adjacent bars. You always compare. Most traders got sucked in by using Arithmetic, instead (summing combined with division.) (see Quants). The unfolding of the unique names of adjacent bars always follows an order. The order always begins with the beginning of a trend and always ends with the end of a trend. In between, heuristically, there is little to do except garner profits. The crayola test, done under supervision with fifth graders, proved the ratio of the range to the travel. Enjoy watching a child do the proof. Since snipping string is involved, please use safe scissors designed for children. Any person can draw the total spectrum of adjaecent bar categories on one page of paper. They each have universally accepted names and paddler shows a few of them and misses others. Too bad. You get the pieces, If you do the work. Drills put the pieces together and you have the Parametric Measure of the foundational Hyposthesis Set. So you want data to disprove something. When this was done before by third parties, they got an answer. When this was done backwards (trading record first and methodology second) by the SEC, they concluded correctly that "I could not know the number of people I was required to know to do what I did". This is an entertaining sentence BUT it did conclude their examination approach and their behavioral actions. They stopped their behavioral actions when they got the same repeated result. As Einstein would put it: They proved they were not insane. How can my detractors prove that they are not insane? Best would be to not keep posting the same thing and expect a different result. The detracting has gone on for about 54 years which is as long as I've traded. The same people who started are not doing it now. It works like a relay. A person joins as described (They say they are ignorant and need the facts). They cannot make a record of the trades I report in posts. I say the bar and reversal direction. They need price and time instead. As years and years go by, the constituents on the relay change (or they stay a while and keep changing their ID's). Proofs are done periodically by those who get my records. They act on their new knowledge. If and when they embroider it, they get fined a lot of money by regulators. Wash and rinse.
Would the definition of a "perfect entry" be one that absolutely eliminates all systemic risk? So, a perfect entry would actually be all-knowing about everything in the world, all the time. Perfect would also mean that you knew exactly what everyone else in the world was thinking about that price as well. And, say for an airline stock, you would have to know all possible world conditions during a particular flight. When someone says "perfect," well............if i need to tell you then you wouldn't understand. now sign up for my class to learn how to make Perfect exits. 10,000 an hour, only 390 spots left!!!
We are different. I gather from what you said: you do not have perfect entires. You do think there are targets. You do use stops and set them to deal with the extent of your pain measured as risk of continuing in the market. You trade small (Stops do not work after a significant portion of the market capacity is reched. My view is: I must have all the entries done and described completely and I must have the full list. I put this on an SQL record. I took the time to figure out how to get from the entry to the exit, bar by bar, by using unique categories whereby the categories follow and OOE according to a rule set described by a PM from a HS. As a pragmatic note. In ES the 13:30 bar just began. I am going to turn on my TV. And all of my contracts are long. The PRV @ 118 sec is 150K. Are you sidelined????
It's bar 13:35. Did you see thw Wall on the DOM? Do you see the other Wall? Side line the long @ 233 sec of the 13:35 bar.