What's your edge's win percentage ?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by zanek, Apr 18, 2010.

What's your systems winning percentage ?

  1. less than 20%

    1 vote(s)
  2. Between 20-40%

    2 vote(s)
  3. Between 40-60%

    7 vote(s)
  4. Between 60-80%

    14 vote(s)
  5. Between 80-100%

    6 vote(s)
  1. zanek


    Yes, I know other things matter, like biggest drawdown , sharpe, etc, but I'm curious what percent of trades are profitable for the traders making money here who actually have a system they developed

    If you want to say how frequently you trade please do . I'm not asking for any info other than your win percentage
  2. Usually won't want to consider anything under 50/50 but it has more to do with risk/reward AND hit rate (win ratio) than just hit rate.

    If I'm risking 5 cents to make 25 cents then a 20% hit rate would make me money. If it was the other way round (risk .25 to make .05) then I'd need a hit rate around 85%...

    It all depends...
  3. The expectancy of any system is far more important than winning percentage. Winning percentage gives you nothing to hang your hat on during a performance review. Where a system that is doing as expected per trade tells me whether I am meeting my goals or not. I have had automated systems with 43% win rates blow away systems with 56% win rates.
  4. maxpi


    Win percentage trades off with R/R ratio.. simulate a hundred accounts with this, it's the best thing I've seen for making something so simple abundantly clear.. and beyond that, if you leave the default parameters and make the lines quantity 100 you can see equity curves for a completely random system... it's funny, some accounts would be doing great ["I'm a successful trader, my edge is bitchin', it's so easy, you losers must be stupid" ], some accounts would be blown out ["markets are rigged, zero sum, you guys are all sim traders, etc...]

  5. IMO the OP understands that win rate and R/R trade off. He is just asking what is your win rate. That is all.

    My win rate is close to 70%. I have great systems with win rates in the vicinity of 40% but they get too many consecutive losers and I do not use them for psychological reasons. A high win rate keeps me upbeat. Too many consecutive losers makes me wonder if and when the next big winning trade will come and although I know it will, that causes a lot of anxiety. I think however that low win rates with bigger winners is a sign of maturity and a path to riches.
  6. maxpi


    I'll probably never go with any low win rate system :) I sleep really well and I want to keep on with that...
  7. My system buys deep out of the money puts on Fridays waiting for news.

    I just made 45 million GS options.

    Typing this from Tahiti
  8. win% is nearly irrelevant. But it makes something that newbies fasten on to. Expectancy/PF means something, but win% is a function of money management.