What's Wrong with Me?

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by caplan8293, Mar 29, 2004.

  1. nkhoi

    nkhoi

    nothing wrong, it is typical of guy-who-don't-want-to-take-loss-and-still-think-his-trade-is-correct behave.
     
    #21     Mar 29, 2004
  2. Having a business plan is not enough: it must be realisable or anyone can make a business plan to go to the moon :D

     
    #22     Mar 29, 2004
  3. I said also in another post, I don't remember which one but I will summarize: market has tendancy to first go on the opposite of upper trend, so that 1°) you should expect it, 2°) you could exploit it, notably for intraday this is the way to reduce slippage.

     
    #23     Apr 2, 2004
  4. abogdan

    abogdan

    Shit, you just remind me myself 10 years ago! Exactly what I was doing back then.

    Solution that worked for me:

    1. Right down your strategy on a piece of paper.
    2. Place GTC limit orders, stops, etc. according to your strategy
    3. Don't place all your capital in one trade, IOW, do multiple entries.
    4. Replace closed trades continuously
    5. Analyze the results
    6. Correct you strategy
    7. Right down your new strategy on a piece of paper

    Repeat the process.

    Cheers,
     
    #24     Apr 2, 2004
  5. zdreg

    zdreg


    ignore slick rick i will give 20% of the net
     
    #25     Apr 2, 2004
  6. TGregg

    TGregg

    It's all about subjective feelings and emotions versus objective reality.

    Some very smart folks went around and surveyed people about profit and loss. They asked them a few very basic questions, where they had x% chance to gain or lose, and how much they'd gain or lose.

    I've got the whole thing in a book downstairs (or across the room on my bookshelf) but I'm too lazy to go get it. :D

    But it showed that odds are far from intuitive, and (as I recall) people have a lower value on money won than money lost. The questions were along the lines of this:

    Would you wager $50 with a 20% chance of losing it all, and an 80% chance of winning $15?

    The odds (over the long run) favor this wager. But they discovered that most folks were not interested. While they could win more money, the won money was worth "less" than the losses in their eyes.
     
    #26     Apr 2, 2004
  7. ======================

    Caplan 8292;

    Noticed you live in Silver springs , watch this silver/gold pattern.

    I am going to assume you have or have acess to a good trading library ;
    I am also assuming those numbers you gave are pretty accurate .

    Harrytrader i cant resist, President John Kennedy had a good written plan to moon & we taxpayers worked that plan to the moon;

    Harrytrader is right on working , working your plan- gold & silver mine takes work.

    $ 11 to 9 is not necessarily ''wrong'' but if its stalling continually at $11 in a bull market-kick out that underperforming dog!

    That may be somewhat temporary % price behavior in a index derivative;

    and would not necessarily think the problem was with me.



    But sounds like the market votes that stock isnt worth $11.

    Doesnt sound like its market makers fault at all-traders problem for sure;

    my written plan includes comparing to DIA, SPY, QQQ in many time frames...
     
    #27     Apr 3, 2004
  8. Nothing's really wrong. You are just obsessed by the idea of keep on buying and selling to make money. Don't forget buy-and-hold.
     
    #28     Apr 3, 2004
  9. This occurs also for intraday. Since I posted the picture for another thread http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=30651, I can use it as also a good example of what I said above:

    On right chart model, for March 31th session you have the daily forecasted trend which is bullish with target for the day at 10401.8 (projection 1 = day 1) but on the left side on subscale you can see a bearish trend before a bullish trend. So when market opened it wasn't a surprise that it plunged first before making the target (real high was 10401.7 so very near 10401.8 the theo value; remark that the next two tops sessions were already forecasted at 10416.5 - see red border label - and 10496 - see orange label).

    <IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=466874>
     
    #29     Apr 4, 2004
  10. LRD

    LRD

    Indeed. If your analysis is right and you like it at $11 then you ought to like it even more at $9, and buy more.

    Of course, if you were wrong in the first place...
     
    #30     Apr 6, 2004