Vishnu, I, for one, loaded up on QQQ and SPY the past two Fridays before this one just because of the late-day surge. Whoa, there's a sure-fire recipe for disaster just waiting to happen. And if it paid off? Then it just reinforces dangerous behavior. I can understand taking small positions in one or more of the derivatives (or a stock) over the weekend, knowing that at this juncture the market is very news driven and anything related to the war, terrorism, anthrax, etc. could happen over the weekend. But loading up the truck because of a late Friday surge? Discipline over conviction.
Nah. Consolidating. I think the uptrend continues UNLESS we get some bad news. Do I have enough confidence in my judgement to hold overnite? No way.
a. QQQ and SPY are not very volatile. Worst case scenario is that the Empire State Building gets destroyed on the Monday morning after I load up on Friday. The indices open up 10% down, then everyone remembers how the markets fully recovered and I get out by afternoon 5% down. I don't use margin so I'm ok there and my normal stop on these positions are about 5%, give or take. b. The fact that you are not holding into the close on Fridays (and many others like you) is great for me: i. the market indicates that it is healthy by the late day surge ii. many otherwise bullish people are sidelined in cash over the weekend. My positions then climb your wall of worry when you put the cash to work on Monday (or whenever). c. The positions did work for me all through October (I am flat, though, this past Friday) so I guess it reinforced my dangerous behavior.
now c'mon, do some math! you think 6 out of 7 is strange? in fact, looking at a particular weekday and finding that 6 out of 7 are losers, is a (5 / 128 * 7) = 27% chance. (the calculation is somewhat imprecise, and assumes that the down days are as likely as up days, but the end result should not be very different.) now, if your "or something like that" in fact means 5 out of 7, then the chances of that happening are damn close to 100%! i'm not saying weekdays cannot be different -- just don't jump into conclusions, because your sample size is way too small for statistical significance. - jaan
jaan, I wholeheartedly agree with you. He doesn't have a clue. If most here make money it would be a miracle. If, out of only a mere 7 coin tosses, i tossed 6 or 7 heads in sequence should I conclude something is wrong with the coin? hahahahahahaha! {shaking head in disbelief} unfreakingbelievable!