Never guaranteed, you could have 5 down years and take 10years to get back to BE. Atleast DayTrading, your in control or atleast the illusion of control. Will take up a loss less of your time though, so if your already rich and not trying to trade to get rich, then more time to spend the rich, if you poor then no money to spend, might aswell keep plodding on!!
You must be a professional money manager. Us mom and pop retail investors/traders never have the luxury of putting a big chunk, lump sum into an index and sit on it for 30 years. The way we small guys invest is putting a small amount into it monthly and after 30 years, start taking it out. So, even for Japanese retail investors, they should be getting more than 60% of what they put in?
For a buy and hold investor, I don't think this is correct. Long term gains tax rate is still smaller than 1256 contract taxes. Not to mention hassle of quarterly roll and retail commission rates. SP500 etf can be had for 3 to 4 bp these days.
Buying futures makes sense if you are restricted from putting more money into the tax free retirement account.
What’s wrong with buying and holding the SPX500?" This is ET; diversification and buying and holding makes me Cringe. -- Trade for actual money. Trade to make a killing in the shock market. Don't run away from risk, embrace its potential rewards. Improve your skill to become a Jedi.