What's Worse: Missing the Move Entirely or Giving All Your Profit Back?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by schizo, Apr 21, 2010.

  1. Blotto

    Blotto

    Not perfection, just a high level of understanding of what it is we are in.

    A trader above posted that an example of a missed trade; putting an order in, market trades near it but never fills. I do not see this as a missed trade as the operator lacked the skill to know read how aggressive the orders needed to be to get filled. That is an important aspect of each market condition and part of dealing skills. If you don't know when you will not get done on a limit away from the market then you will "miss" many trades as you simply do not understand yet.

    The thread was what is worse, missing out on an entry or "giving back" on an exit. My point applies to the second even more so. If you cannot see a reversal coming and give back all your profit than it is market reading. Of course even the best traders will get an unexpected reversal sometimes, but it is proportional to experience and skill. A skilled trader will usually exit the trade in profit and not allow it to reverse, as the reversal can be predicted well in advance.

    I'm just concerned that aspiring traders are beating themselves up over things they are not yet in a position to fix. Missing a market move which isn't part of your setup isn't "missing out", and equally you cannot expect to take a profit until you can manage exits correctly - if a (once profitable) trade comes back to BE or a loss then you aren't "missing" anything as you did not have the skills to take profit at the best time.

    You are correct that failing to pull the trigger isn't a market knowledge issue. I was referring more to "missed" trades which are really not understanding the condition enough to trade it correctly, and then feelings of missing out when the market moves in the anticipated direction.

    As for operating in absolutes...interesting. This is like a pendulum. Naive beginners start out operating in absolutes. The wrong ones. Then comes skill and experience, and things are not seen so much in black and white. Towards the higher levels many aspects revert back to absolutes or near absolutes, such as entry criteria, knowledge of market conditions, etc. There is still "grey" and still things to be learned, but the core knowledge, the correct knowledge, is understood and arranged in such a way as to give the correct trade decision (output) to any set of conditions.

    I suppose the distinction is that at the higher end the absolutes are generated by the market and understood by the trader, whereas for the beginner the absolutes are self generated or are influence from mainstream thinking, thus not appropriate, not correct, and not wise to treat as absolutes.

    Good trading,
     
    #81     Apr 26, 2010
  2. Blotto

    Blotto

    Here is my take. Four versions.

    "Missing out" on a big market move which didn't involve a valid setup.
    "Giving back" profit when your trading plan did not tell you to get out.

    Failing to pull the trigger on a valid setup. (fear, poor discipline)
    Not taking the correct exit (with profit) due to greed - perhaps a fast move in your favour, or a visually obvious trend. Greed, poor discipline.

    The first two are market knowledge related. These are to do with current skill level, not missing out. Should learn from these, but not expect to get them all just yet.

    The last two are emotional issues overriding a proven strategy, and therefore very dangerous.
     
    #82     Apr 26, 2010