imo as long as the hedgies keep playing "long oil" then i would find it hard to break below $57 a barrel unless we just have a very mild start to the winter and there is more openly discussed "economic slowdown" buzz. also the forward looking china economic growth figures reported last week were surprisingly still strong --- well above estimates {india also}.
I believe oil is going straight up in the long term. Short-term, who knows? I've made a lot of money on my oil calls, but I've also lost a lot of money.
As I see the fundamental picture, there is a lot of oil around right now, because people prepared for major supply disruptions and it didn't happen. On the other side there are people who'd like to build up an American-style strategic reserve. China is at it for quite a while now and others might follow (Japan?, Taiwan?, Korea?). I'd look out for a slow descent that suddenly hits a rock-steady bottom somewhere above 50. Of course there's a lot of flexibilty to the upside, depending on news (Iraaan...).