Maybe I do have it all wrong. And your right, I don't understand how Oanda is the sleeping juggernaut you claim it to be. I was under the impression real size can only be *efficiently* executed through interbank participants or a prime brokerage facilitating access. On the face of it, that doesn't necessarily disclude Oanda from offering retail clients institutional liquidity; since Oanda likely has prime brokerage relationships through which they can channel big size. But for bigger clients, that makes Oanda - and in theory, all other retail (bucket)shops - a middleman for the big league investor. Middlemen characteristically add inefficiency and cost to any supply chain. What makes Oanda any different? How can Oanda, as a middleman, offer better cost savings to bigger investors had they not gone directly to the source (interbank)? What does server capacity have to do with all this? Thanks.
You raise a very interesting point. Theoretical limitations in forex trading are almost boundless due to the depth of market liquidity. But in practice, once the private investor makes it big and trades interbank, the gatekeeper - at their sole discretion - can tip the traders hand and watch, record and analyze all the traders entries, exits and stops. Brute forcing is not difficult from here. This is reminiscent of a famous hedge fund manager from the 90's or early 2000? that made it big, bragged about his success, then got burned by Wall Street who cracked his strategy and front ran his trades into the ground. This makes me wonder, how can any trader in theory preserve anonymity to thwart the 'other side' - be it retail dealers or prime brokers - from cracking a successful edge? I've read the only possible way to do this entails opening several accounts at different banks and varying trade openings and closures between separate accounts. The idea being to close each open trade with a different account so no one gatekeeper has enough information to brute force a strategy (in theory). What do you think?
But don't you think banks, if given the chance, may very well take a profitable strategy for themselves? You raise a good point - banks that trade with clients are less motivated to take what isnt theirs. But when trading interbank, how can a trader be sure their gatekeeper isnt taking the other side? And if the bank is indeed getting a 'free ride' with the client, the banks additional volume may begin to change the underlying market dynamic the strategy was originally intended to exploit.
your correct all the way here dude.... if they can't hire you (and you def. won't want them to!) they will study yr trades to the extent possible, and if they manage to understand what you do, they'll front-run you if they can. what do u think the 'fx sales' guys r doing at investment banks with institutional order flow? of course its not systematic, coz its all about not getting caught, but honestly... as for opening multiple accts etc so they lose the trail, seems a pretty sensible thing to do, with some minor additional steps but then lets not fall into total paranoia either ;-)
come on now tomcole, 1) yes i was, and for 17 years in banking, broking, stock & futop exchanges etc but even if that weren't the case...?, 2) what is it this fascination u seem to have with tier 1 bks??? a couple of years ago, after the internet bubble burst, and since we'd run afoul of as many regulators across the planet as you can name, i was dispatched to rebuild the trade surveillance function in asia, and we were doing the same in the us & europe, it was in no better shape, no shape at all actually, and it doesn't matter if u don't believe it... u just have nooo idea what can go on at tier 1 bks do u?, but truth is, of course we don't publish our internal review papers in the IHT, and yes it is always a balance between reputational risk, does this trade pass the smell test etc etc... sometimes i wish i were still like u... just kidding (no disrespect meant) where your right tho' is that the key reason for this IS 'competition'... when you're working on the edge, even if your a 100% straight-up guy as most of the guys actually were and i'd say still are, there is always a much wider gray area than you'd think, yr clients r asking you to come up with 'creative' solutions all the time, what do u think that means in practice?? now, take a prop trader sitting across the glass wall from the GFX desk, he knows that this fish-named fund we r one of the prime-brokers for is making a killing, happens to be a great pal of the prime-brok sales guy in charge, and of the IT guy in charge of the API... not an exceptional situation... do u need me to draw u a picture??
2cent - Although I dont disagree that stuff does happen, considering the number of trades, the number of clients and the number of sales/trader staff etc, it is limited. In comparison to non-tier 1 firms, where unscrupulous behaviour is the norm. Ever wonder why some low level firms will do anything to get an account with a big boy? It gives them credibility. There are always those that try to funnel trades or do other silly stuff, the truly successful ( read get real bonus money) never engage in funny stuff. From your comments, I'm convinced you never worked in a serious trading environment, with serious customers doing serious deals. The stuff you gloat about just doesnt happen at that level.
Could any of the seasoned Forex traders explain to me why EUR/USD and JPY/USD are so weak, despite what seems like big inflows in respective equity and bonds markets (e.g. German DAX and Japanese NIKKEI have risen over 20% in last few months and Euro bonds are near all time highs). If this is due to US multinational tax-free (5% vs 35%) profit repatriation, rumored to be in 100s of billions, then where were those companies keeping their EURs or JPYs (now supposedly being converted into USDs) until now? Under CEO's mattress? Because the EU and JPN asset markets don't seem like they're experiencing outflows, quite the contrary infact... I've asked the same question several times, but have received no answer sofar... Please see "trading vs investing markets" http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=51198 and let me know what you think. TIA