Tell it to Jim Simmons and his colleagues running Medallion. While we are no where near them, not even close, following their footsteps so to speak, and got some confirmations from the book. Some things in the book can only be grasped by those who doing it. Like I said, your whole style depends on 1 pattern you discovered, and you hope it will continue. There is a difference between us.
sure he might have smarter people working for him so they get a step ahead of other people, or he may just be another example of my 1000 monkey theory.
It happened to U.S. stocks in the Great Depression/WWII era. It took about 25 years for the Dow to fully recover. Stocks paid much higher dividends back then, though, so you would've recovered much earlier that 25 years based on dividends, but still, it was a long, stagnant period. Japan's Nikkei topped in 1989 and still hasn't recovered. Most people say we're different and that can't happen here, but who knows? Japan's market had crazy high valuations, though...even worse than ours before the dot-com crash or a few months ago before the coronavirus crash. We're also a considerably bigger player in the global economy (though Japan is no slouch), so there are clear differences. But could we have a period of 10, 15 even 20+ years where the indexes don't fully recover from a crash? It's certainly possible. I think it's likely we'd reach new highs first, though. The current crash is more of an externality and the gov't and Fed are doing everything they can to prevent a long recession/crash (as they've been doing since the late 80s but especially since 2008).
In the funds where public is allowed. He said it himself more than few times, that those funds are nothing like medalion, but people obviously did not listen.