What's the best application of technical analysis?

I found a very interesting idea on Jurik's website:

"What's the best application of a neural net in a trading system?"

"Numerous users of neural net technology have reported that using a neural net to predict the future TRADING RANGE of a price time series is likely to produce better results than most other kinds of forecasts, including future percent-price-change, future price, and future volatility.

"To forecast future price range, you need to create TWO neural nets. One to forecast the HIGHEST price of the next N days (minutes, ticks) and one to forecast the LOWEST price of the next N days. These two nets estimate the future trading range."

http://www.jurikres.com/faq/faq_bcel.htm#application

It occurred to me that this approach might apply to TA in general.

Comments? I'd especially like to hear from experienced NN users. TIA

 

no, no comments.

 

I have a software package for sale that creates neural networks. It works so good that i want to share my wealth with others for only 3000$.

 

The NN at Jurik's site is up to 93% less than your asking price.

I am in no way advocating the usage of NNs for trading. I simply asked a question about the best usage of TA, and whether what Jurik says about NN usage is actually valid according to real NN users here. That's all.

 

"Forecasting is very difficult, especially when it involves the future."

 

I have yet to hear of one trader who has successfully used NNs to create a consistantly profitable trading system.

I'm sure they have some application, but to date it doesn't seem anyone has any success applying them to trading.

Runningbear

 

Runningbear: .A solid reference to that is "The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies" by Katz and McCormick. :Al

 

As far as range forecasting goes, NN will not work better then simple statistic method. I have tried it and have seen other to wrestle with it without much of a success. If you will talk to Jurik, ask him if his NN can accurately forecast time of reversal. That would be more usefull .

 

Better yet, ask him why he hasn't become a zillionaire from trading this himself, instead preferring to sell NNs and indicators on a crappy website (looks like it was put together by a five-year old) rather than driving a Lambo (or two) and partying with hot chikkie babes with big mammaries (with questionable morals - of course - they are more fun - yeah yeah) - whilst his Neural monkeys earn him major cashola! One can only wonder...

 

The hardest part of designing a useful NN is to come up with the inputs to it. Once you have figured that out you its doubtful that you even need the NN itself.