Hello LacesOut, I use to be like this as well. I use to wonder why the market did this or did that at 8:30am or 10am, or why this big move, or why inflation is 4 or 3%, or why unemployment news is bad or why this and that. What Obama said this for and what if Trump do this and that. Then i realize I did not need all that. I personally do not care why the market move up or down or how fast it moves. I just want to make money and follow whatever way it moves. I only track what time major news is released and make sure my butt does not have an position in the market during these times. I use to try and trade the news and loss alot of money. Now I don't care. I just want to make money either way and control the risk. I need to know where I am getting in , and where i am getting out.
For certain...I haven't deviated from my method... I just was interested to see the mkt react this morning to the data...and then rebound....and then wondered what was what... it didn't affect MY trading, perse, though it did lead to me getting kicked out... but that was for no other reason than I was wrong...
Yes, good post.. I too don't generally trade reports or news... I happened to be in during the report... and noted the big swing... and wondered which would hold (the initial reaction, or the reversal)... It was the latter today... Tomorrow?
You need to view things as a hybrid approach, always, kind of. , But generally, loosely speaking...I would say the trend is your friend. Don't let quick, maybe temporary, market emotions/gyrations dictate your overall judgement. Have initial, or semi-initial, market direction conviction...but wait for a slight confirmation. That's like watching someone on TV throw a pie in the face of someone...and assuming it's safe to say he's also a killer and rapist. Be an ET, extraterrestrial trader, in 2018.
I keep track of news release times and if I am in a losing trade, I exit before the time. If i am in a winning trade, i bring stop to breakeven and let the big boys do whatever they wanna do when the news comes out. But I do not enter a new trade if news time is coming. after the news, i look to get on board either way.
The Arora Report has an excellent explanation of the stock market behavior and also of the gold move that makes lots of sense. You need to be a subscriber to read it though.
No of course you are correct ... and I did not ... I was simply wondering if knee jerk reactions tend to be correct or incorrect...or if there was any tracking of such data or if it was even something that anyone tracked.
You need to think differently. First you need to know the cause of the reaction and then you can backrest for that cause.
I think the algos leaned on the USD price action today and dont have the code yet for rate spikes due to CPI. Maybe next month.