I can easily refute all of those 1. True, jobless claims are highest in 16 years. But the last time they were this high was in 1992 and the stock market surged higher for eight years. But putting it in perspective America has 140 million workers and a historic unemployment rate between 4-6%, which is at most 8 million. A 32,000 weeks increase in jobless claims is chicken shit when put in perspective. 2. The pilly fed index is of little predictive value and essentially useless. Also, 1990 was a bottom in stocks. It's a very unreliable, worthless indicator to be taken with a huge lump of salt 3. Um and that implies they can't go higher?
Chiming in from the southeastern USA: - First time in my adult life (I'm 40) that I have friends who are unemployed and are having a tough time finding work, and these are middle class people pulling down $40K-$50K a year, not the top end of the scale. - In an area that did not have the real estate bubble as in other parts of the USA, seeing an incredible number of houses for sale in the neighborhood many of which have been on the market for quite some time. - Everyone I know (self included) that sells something or depends on $$ coming in from outside sources is bemoaning the huge drop in revenue. Sales where I work are off 40% from 2007. The biggest year over year drop I've ever seen was in the single digits, and I've worked there for 13 years. - I play with guitars and basses and amplifiers, and there is a ton of high quality equipment for sale at fire sale prices via local retailers and craigslist. I've never seen people in general so concerned about their well being. I guess this must have been the case in 1982 here, but I was 13 then and not nearly as attuned to it. I've never seen anything like it.
IMHO, Joe Sixpack and Sally Call Center are in a recession. If you are leveraged, in debt that is extreme and you spend more than you bring in, Depression. However, the over all economy has yet to post a "Negitive" quarter, back to back. GDP was revised to zero for next few quarters. We are starting another Joint Venture Project. Working with Slawson Energy and Chespk. Per share, 89K. Private Equity Clients still taking risk. Took us less than 2 weeks to fund our last project, at 90K per share. Spoke to a client today. He is in the Meat Packing/Slaughter house business. Sole Owner, did 40 million last year, on track to push 50 plus this year. Is in a rented space because his building burnt down last year. Rebuilt and will be moving in to a larger operation. Has 47% of new cash in the company, owns all his machines free and clear, owns the land and the new building. No mortage. Wants to expand and build two new buildings. He can do it on his own, but rather take a Business Loan out. Banks , 7 have denied him. Keep in mind there is no "Debt" and his business is expanding. He will give it until Dec 15th, as he cks around with other Banks, to see if he can get funding. If not, he will spend is own cash. So, there is your "Bail out" tax dollars at work. Fucking idiot banks will not lend to a solid company, they are not lending at all. Hoarding the money the Feds gave them. Of course, this guy will buy 3 shares on this next project without blinking an eye. This is "main street". Debt Street is what you guys are talking about. The weak will fall and the strong will survive.
I can't believe you STILL have shutters on your eyes. Citi announced last night they are now considering selling the company, AND we are now OFFICIALLY in the worst bear market since the Great Depression. Since prices are the only thing that matter to you, and not facts, how many times have you been wrong? As for the absolute bottom, it COULD be around here, but I doubt it as the low in a bear is usually about half way through a recession, and we are just entering this one. (PM me if you want a lesson on why this true, I don't want to go too off tangent on this thread). That's another thing that makes those employment numbers so ominous. In 92, we were at the tail end of a recession, which is when unemployment peaks. We are easily going over 8% this time, which doesn't sound that bad, but its going to keep consumer spending down for quite some time. And, as you know with your econ stats, that's 70% of the economy. As I told you well over a year now. In my two decades plus in this biz, this is BY FAR the worst fundamental economic setup I have ever seen. The main culprit being the parabolic increase in debt on every level (which is what fueled the growth BTW). No way we get more than anemic global growth for years until much of this excess is worked off. We could get lucky like in '92 when we got the Tech boom. What's out there now though? Maybe a green energy boom? That, or a major regional war is the only thing that is going to get us anywhere faster than a snail's pace. Since you insist on being long, go heavy on the inevitable wicked bear bounces we will get, but keep your time frames short! This is assuming you have any money left.
please don't quote GDP. Almost no economists worth their salt use this as an indicator as it is extremely lagging (tells you after the fact), and the #'s are usually way off. look at the revisions for the past two months (revised way down). The government likes to use GDP as an indicator so that it can deny recession until we are about coming out of one. use unemployment and bankruptcies if you want real time data. both are on a steeping upward curve. we've been in recession for almost a year. EM, its great that sales are booming where you are, but most of the country is experiencing a serious contraction in sales. Everything from official retail sales #'s, to the large number of major retailers going under shows this to be true.
US is (was) an importing consumer driven economy. In which case watch the TEUs being unloaded each month at US ports. This has been dropping since May '08 with the notable figure being the big drop off in october TEU arrivals. October arrivals contain Xmas stock and so Importers have predicted this consumer down turn many months ago and adjusted orders accordingly. As Jayford points out, garner your information from any source away from government sanctioned figures. regards f9
Not sure where you got this info. I live in Brooklyn and all restaurants in my area, which is one of the best one, are all packed. I work in Manhattan and all bars are still packed. The mall where we usually go, well I am a designated drives for my wife, is Jersey Gardens. It is located in Elizabeth, NJ. Last weekend, I had to go all the way to back parking and even there had a tough time finding a spot. The mall was packed with people and many stores had big lines to registers. RE prices so far did not drop at all. Some crazy people had to reduce their asking price, but over all it is still about the same as last 1-2 years. I am not saying we are not in Recession, we are, but in all honesty, if I was not watching TV or browsing internet, I would not not about it. So far, NY and NJ are holding pretty good. Who know what next year will bring.
Another reason to not watch TV or read Drudge.. who gives a rats popo, I knew people that were failing miserably when times were great LOL. Obama was declaring "recession" and "businesses closing their doors all across America" months ago and we have not had two quarters of contraction yet.. I'm in this nice upper middle class neighborhood nowadays, if you don't read the papers or talk to the construction contractors at the Donut shop you would never know there was any problem. Last year I lived in a very lower middle class area, when gas prices went up the highways were empty...
I couldn't agree more with this one. I got a ticket the other day going 82 in a 70. I have been driving past the same cops for years and never received a ticket.
I live in Morris County, NJ and agree for the most part. RE prices are coming down at different rates depending on where you are. The shore communities, especially further south have been hammered. Have a friend who's an agent and there's very little action. Worse are the rental vacancies. It used to be that you had to book your weekly rental before February if you wanted a prime spot. Although the knock down rebuilding has slowed down in the past year, it's still going on. Those in the most desirable sections of my town are usually sold before the windows are in. Starting to see more for sale signs, but it seems to be from the older folks. There's been a tremendous turn over in the last 10 years due to the school system (H.S. consistently in the top 10 out of 245 state-wide) and it's accelerated recently with those who've cashed out on their NYC digs to raise their kids here. Have seen some dealerships close or cut back by shutting down their satellite lots, same for some retail stores. The two nearest malls are doing okay with Short Hills, which is quite upscale, seemingly unaffected if you go by the parking lots. Jersey Gardens Mall is always packed because it's an outlet mall and is in an Urban Enterprise Zone so sales tax is half the normal 7%. NJ also exempts sales tax on clothing purchases, not sure that matters for NY residents any more though.