They say " a recession is where your neighbour loses his job; a depression is where you lose yours ." While its in the first state it seems that the decimation isn't decimating enough to be visible unless you happen to be in a neighborhood of lost jobs. I'm guessing 2009 and if it goes seriously south 2010+ will show you the pictures you guys are looking for. PS. People, particularly habitual shoppers, shop when they feel bad. But they tend to shop cheaper so you'll only see that change in the statistics.
You can't see it because you are fucking blind homes.. We'll all be surfing our Iphones in the soup lines soon. And you will be first in line...and no you can't cut...
A drop in GDP of say 5% would only be naked-eye noticeable in the worst-hit areas or by very close detailed observation. You're basically talking about the difference between someone buying a Samsung 450 series LCD TV rather than a 650 series LCD TV. That's not an observable artifact if you're standing in the door of a typical Best Buy watching shoppers go in and out. Even a short depression would be hard to observe outside, say, Flint Michigan. The images some of you guys seem to be expecting can only be seen after a multiyear depression, laid on top of a society with no functioning safety net to begin with. For the US to reach that state again would take either a global calamity (ie, everyone stopped buying Treasuries) or a very very long and deep recession on the order of 10 years.
Mods, please move this thread out of the TRADING FORUM . . . it has absolutely nothing to do with TRADING.
"This was a great idea, Joel. Where else can you get a hot chocolate for $4?" - "Risky Business" 1983 That line actually sounds like a coffee commercial ripping Starbucks...
Very obvious here in San Diego. Seems every 4th expensive home along the Strand (beach boardwalk) is for sale or auction. Several boarded up shops in the largest mall. My buddies, college grads all, are hurting big time. One has a boat biz where he hasn't sold a thing in months (if it wasn't for rentals, he'd be out of biz), another now unemployed, and a third just received a notice that he will be in 2 months. BTW, do not listen to stocktrader. The guy has no clue. A nuclear bomb could hit his backyard and he'd find a way to spin it as bullish. The retail stores are hurting HUGE, and several have gone out of biz. We just had RECORD declines in retail sales. Its nothing like the depression of course, but easily like the early 80's, which was bad, and we are just getting started. Hell, all three of our auto producers may be in bankruptcy soon. citi looks like it may implode within the week. It was the largest bank in the World about a year ago. No, that's not main st, but will be if they tear it apart.
ET is home to tens of thousands of wealthy traders, you only have to read the posts to know this. It is not a good cross section of US economy.
FEAR! Unadulterated fear! People who don't know the stock market from the farmers market are talking about this crash. Isn't anybody buying anything they don't really need. Main street is spooked...big time.