What's Holding This Market Up?

Can I assume you are a Cubano?

 

Yes sir came during the 80's Mariel boatlift as a kid.

 

It looks like an upcoming rate cut is expected and is being discounted in the market.

 

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And before you, the Vietnamese, Indians, Persians... before them, the Chinese, Japanese, Italians, Irish, German, Scottish, English ..... we are all immigrants or their descendants. This big melting pot is America's secret source.

Regards,

 

Wishful thinking.

Oh BTW "cargo ship transport" is not very expensive. From anywhere in the world.

 

A 40 foot sea van container from China to the US West Coast is $4200 - $7,000 at current 2019 rates. It’s a factor.

The plastics industry uses a standard 24 percent baseline adder for shipping from China to the US when they are costing out work. And as Chinese wages rise it becomes more consequential.

 

And it's cheaper for a East Coast based company to source on the East Coast (and vice versa on the West Coast) - if freight costs are all that is considered.

So?

As we know shipping is but a slice of the pie.

Also the plastics industry uses a lot of crude and natty gas ... from many places.

The world is more than the U.S. or China ya know.

 

Sp500 20% down in dec2018.
Volatility broke range from 22 to 26. Big deal? .. No.
Usd drifted down for the month. No flight there.
Treasuries rallied but , not a big fear response.
Looks to me as if as if big money just hung in there and accepted unrealized loss.

Maybe equity participants, needing something solid to lean on, acknowledged fed funds market
strong forcasting that the Fed will be dovish for 2019. Then boom! Even John Q Public read that
Tightening cycle is done. Big rally. What else could this be?

Markets seem to dampen, de sensitize, assimilate repeated episodes of the " same thing".
Or at least look beyond it. Does anyone think that dec low will be tested soon?

 

Sooooo Transports down over -1.5% today and in my search for some other freight indicator called the PCI (not the Fed one) I come across this bit of news:

‘Trucking Conditions’ skid to a negative reading for the first time in years

https://www.ccjdigital.com/trucking-conditions-skid-to-a-negative-reading-for-the-first-time-in-years/?utm_medium=ccj&utm_campaign=site_click&utm_source=must_clicks_sidebar

 

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True, thin + smaller on blue buy volume[green] on some charts. NOT to worry; red sell volume is picking up on SPY, 52 week/chart/data= bearish.,
But most likely 4th quarter SPY,QQQ 2019 finishes strong, typical super strong pre-election year. Not a prediction;+ not above 50 day moving average.