Your post is a succinct summary of the neophyte's pipe dream. It sounds good in the abstract, but it won't hold up when the rubber hits the road.
Yeah, pipe dreams and having a method which is counter intuitive, not following the crowd, these are dumb ideas, let me get my Al Brooks book out and RSI Indicator - oh MACD loooove that indicator. I want to be married to someone with a double bottom so I can be head and shoulders above the radical thinkers.
Agree .Also I would assume he is using a hard stop and even so there would be occasional slippage.Would also like to know how wide his stop is.If you do this long enough you can have an idea when the probabilitys for a big move are there,then I would wait for the real move after I'm in.Since all the Covid started I have cut my position size but made my stop significantly wider and results are much better than pre Covid.
The interesting thing is that he used a fair bit of analysis to get that point. He certainly did not just enter. But he was usually done in the first 30-60 minutes. He never told me what his average stop was, but the problem with the '1 point per day method' is that you're really vulnerable to losses, so it really requires an amazing consistency and discipline. If he uses a 20 point disaster stop it's not unlikely that in the event of a year it will get hit and then he's set back a month of profits. At the time we spoke it did work for him though and he allegedly had several years in a row with < 5 losing days. Another trader who posted on this site a long while ago seemed to do something similar in that he had a fairly conservative profit target which he did with size. He never swung for the fences, but aimed for a consistent modest profit.
For what it's worth, I netted 25 ES points yesterday. That's approx. 60 % of the RTH range, but only 5,6 % of the total offer on the day (448,25 points). Admittedly, a bit of an outlier result for me as per my recent approach/results, but I had confidence in the trade and decided to press it. I know very well it's not likely I'm going to do this on a daily basis for the risk I'm interested in assuming, but I do think it's essential to aim to press your winners and nail down a few outlier days once in a while. If you don't, you're really vulnerable to the downside when you eventually will take on a losing day or string of losing trades. Not really looking for any definitive answers in this thread as I know they don't exist, but just curious to hear how others think on this and I've already received a few good comments. So, thanks.
Pressing when you have probabilities lined up in your favor is what it is all about. Trading smaller or not at all when they don't line up as much. Not slow consistent small winners.
Don't underestimate yourself LF. You've recognized the difference between linear range and travel. Linear range CAN BE A DAILY GOAL on a per contract basis or contract aggregate basis. Travel is what allows the linear range to be attainable (per contract or aggregate). Someone on page 1 somewhat jokingly mentioned 3x ATR... It's not impossible. But it is impossible to attain more than 100% of the travel on a per contract basis. That just needs to be said. Using linear range (per contract or in aggregate) as a daily goal tends to keep the trader in tune and in sync with the market. In this way, you are correct that there is no definitive numerical answer to your question of what is a worthwhile take as the nemerical is different everyday. I myself use 100% of the RTH linear range, per contract, as my daily goal. I've had 2x+ ATR days, and I've had negative days. I look for the intraday travel opportunities. Good trading to you.
Hi, tiddlywinks, Thank you for your post. Mind me asking what you typically capture of the RTH range on your winning days? There's a large gap between the theoretical potential of my system/methodology/calls and what I currently take, but I hope to bridge the gap eventually. For now, I'm focusing on daily consistency, limiting downside and eventually increasing my take. Likewise.
No problem. But the footnote must be understood first. The footnote is this... There are complete RTH session linear range (and travel) values and there are linear range (and travel) values for the time a trader trades. I guarantee myself to trade during the first 2.5 hours. That linear range can be substantially different than the values for the entire RTH session. I AVERAGE 64% of the RTH linear range per contract. Hitting 75-90% during the first hour or so is commonplace. Also important to understand, losses are very contained. My system/method takes most of it signals from volume and price-behavior in that order, NEVER price alone. Volume leads price, btw. When price-behavior no longer syncs with volume, one of 2 things will happen... reverse or sideline. Sideline like reverse, includes booking profit or loss, but also the exit and do nothing option. Holding through big (a relative term) drawdown is not something I do... get on the bus, or sideline. Only 2 things happen regarding price alone... continuation or change. HTH