jesus christ why do i even come on these boards? every time we have a thread like this there is at least one fool who cant seem to grasp the most basic concept of trading. AVERAGE 1 ES point a day. AVERAGE! AVERAGE!!! did you get that? not 1 point targets. an average. yes i have about 2:1 risk reward on most of my trades and my usual target is +20 to +32 ticks. but I AVERAGE about 1.5- 2 ES points a day. its not exactly quantum mechanics my god some people...
I'm just going to address the first question. 20 days? That's laughable. Try 2 years, with financial statements to back up your claims.
No, it's not, but you should know there are people that know quantum mechanics trading against you, and I believe that may be a bigger point to think about. I think a pre-teen could buy and sell with some profitability for at least a day. They won't know why and no one will be able to explain it, but the point is, placing orders is not the bigger issue.
what the hell are you talking about? i just meant it was a simple concept to consider average daily profit per contract. PS: I studied mathematics at oxford
My bad, I thought you were referring to the mechanics of trading, which involves placing orders, something a monkey could do.
Bison The quantum physicists do as good in the markets as they do with the weather. LOL. Seriously though, I have a couple of questions 1. Do you use non parametric stats on the data? My understanding is that market movements are not normally distributed. I have been using frequency distributions [histograms] to try and identify potential trade set ups. I live in NZ so I can only really trade futures before the markets open becasue of the time zome difference. 2. Also why do you target such large moves in the SnP, I would expect your returns to be quite voaltile from your average 1.5 and max drwadown of 16.. You may be able to reduce volatility by reducing your RR and improving your win %age. IMO less volatility of returns means less risk. Cheers
The problem with this is with the variables...if current price is X, then there is a distribution for X going to Y, for x going to Y+ 1 tick, Y-1 tick, Y + 100 ticks, ect...the probability also then changes with each update on X(each tick) for every combination of Y. Assuming X and Y is just the high and low of a period doesn't really tell you anything IMO. Going for bigger moves makes sense because you don't know when those bigger moves will happen. It only matters that your making enough bets to be part of them when they do happen and not get killed when your wrong or bleed to death from a thousand cuts when your only marginally right or wrong.
no, despite my academic background i actually use no indicators or maths in my trading at all. i use price, pivots and levels. i trade using instincts, pattern recognition, game theory. no fundamentals or news trading. i have a high win rate as i am very good at predicting turning points and fake outs at key levels in the ES ahead of time. i dont know how i do it, subconcious pattern recognition mainly i think. i used to be a pro poker player so i guess i am well trained at that sort of instinct... when there is a big trendy one sided day i stay out. funnily enough i am quite good at sensing these days are unravelling but i do not like to chase the market and dont know how to really 'ride trends' trading wise so i stay out. i just stick to bounces and reversals where the r/r is easy to define.