Good Friday, NFP Report and more HERE. Happy Easter, Passover, Ramadan and any other holiday you may celebrate.
After two days of very light volume in stock index futures, I suspect tomorrow will be a different ball game. CPI Tomorrow! The CPI will be critical to the inflation outlook for Fed policymakers. Previous CPI reports have created velocity logic events in the stock indices at the CME. Please read more details aboutvelocity logic and price banding HERE. The above reports will Bookend the FOMC minutes release @1pm CT on tomorrow.
General: The March Consumer Price Index came in cooler than expected, showing a rise of 0.1% in March. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting CPI to rise by 0.2% month over month. PPI tomorrow. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting showed officials feared that the economy could tilt into a mild recession later this year in the wake of the U.S. banking crisis. Yesterday, Bitcoin futures (BTC) pushed over the $30,000 level for the first time since June 2022. This on the heels of a ±10,000-point move from March 10 when the April contract traded to an intraday low of 19,620 and closed at 20,110. Today, May orange juice futures closed at an all-time high of $2.8490 per pound a remarkable ±80-cent / $12,000 move from late January. This year, the U.S. orange crop is forecast to be the smallest since 1937. Output has generally been in decline since peaking 25 years ago, though this year’s losses in Florida – a global top producer still – are extremely sharp. Yesterday, the USDA pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes, an 86-year low and down 23% on the year. That is less than 20% of U.S. output compared to the record 1997-1998 season. May sugar futures traded today to 6 1/2 -year highs and an intraday high of 24.85 cents/pound continuing its months-long charge from the 17-18-cent range (one cent = $1,120). News of lower-than-expected production in some key regions and tightening supplies have persisted into the year. For the seventh consecutive session, June gold has closed above $2,000/ounce. Referencing the Fed minutes mentioned above, economists have cited rising interest rates and now a potentially more acute slowdown in lending after the collapse of several U.S. banks as a possible trigger of a recession this year. The prospect of a U.S. recession boosts safe-haven demand for gold, which has been on a tear since early-March – with a ±$200 per ounce / $20,000 move.
Daily levels for 04.17.2023 below, weekly newsletter with gold outlook and other trading resources now LIVE
July grains are front month for most grains. June crude oil is front month. Levels or April 20th below: