June is now front month for bonds/ ten years and other rate futures. Levels for the last trading day in February below:
Below are the contracts which are entering First Notice or Last Trading Day for the upcoming month. Levels for tomorrow and more on our daily BLOG.
Heads up! NFP ( non farm payrolls) or unemployment report will not come out tomorrow as it normally does on the first Friday of every month, however keep in mind that the anticipated and volatile ISM report will be out tomorrow right at 10:00 o'clock AM Eastern Time. Levels for tomorrow, Friday 03.03.2023 below:
Wishing all of you a great weekend and successful trading week ahead. below is a small part of our weekly newsletter issue #1136 which goes live at the end of today's session: Hot Market of the Week - April Live Cattle Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that's not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs. FREE TRIAL AVAILABLE PriceCounts - Not about where we've been , but where we might be going next! April live cattle satisfied second upside PriceCounts objective last month and has spent time consolidating since. At this point if the charts can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the third count would project a run to the 171.92 area, very close to the old time high print from the fall of 2014.
Full day tomorrow with additional Powell, Beige book, JOLTS, ADP, energy numbers and more.... Times and reports below, levels for tomorrow on our BLOG
Ahead of NFP this Friday, the below is provided by our friends over at NewSquawk.com PREVIEW: US nonfarm payrolls (Feb’23) to be released on Friday March 10th at 13:30GMT/08:30EST Traders will frame the February jobs data in the context of the FOMC’s March 22nd meeting. Chair Powell this week has guided expectations towards a 50bps rate rise at that meeting, and suggested that the FOMC is likely to revise its view of the terminal rate higher. Accordingly, the bar for further hawkish repricing is higher than the bar for any dovish tweaking to that pricing (the former being likely in the event of an upside surprise, and the latter in the event of a downside surprise). The reaction will likely be largely premised on the headline and then the wage components. It is also worth noting that expectations for that March meeting will be refined by the CPI data for the month, which is due on March 14th. EXPECTATIONS: The consensus looks for 203k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in February (forecast range: 100-325k), with the pace cooling from the 517k added in January. If the consensus is realized, it would be lower than the pace of the 3-, 6- and 12-month averages, at 356k, 349k and 414k respectively. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.4% (range: 3.3-3.5%); the Fed projects that the jobless rate will peak at 4.6% in 2023, although the central bank will update its economic projections at the March 21-22nd confab. READ FULL COMMENTARY HERE
The CME FedWatch tool is a free online resource provided by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) that provides information about the market's expectations for changes to U.S. Federal Reserve policy. Here's how to use it: Go to the CME FedWatch tool website: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html Scroll down to the "Countdown to FOMC" section. Review the table to see the probability of an interest rate change or no change at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, as well as the probability of future rate changes. You can also view the implied yield of the Fed Funds futures contract for each FOMC meeting. This represents the market's expectation of the federal funds rate at the specified date. To view more detailed information, click on the "View Tool" button at the top of the page. This will take you to a page with additional charts and data about the market's expectations for the federal funds rate. The Fed DOTPLOT is found on the left hand margin of the tool. Note that the CME FedWatch tool is not a crystal ball and cannot predict the future with certainty. It is simply a reflection of the market's current expectations and can be affected by changes in economic conditions or other factors. Levels for NFP Friday, March 10th: