4 Years in the Making By John Thorpe, Senior Broker How Much will the FOMC Cut rates tomorrow? .25 or .50 basis points from 5.25/5.5 % ? As of the issuance of this Blog Post. The September Fed Funds futures contract is reflecting a 63% probability of a .50 basis point cut and 37% probability of a .25 basis cut. It is my view, not Cannon Trading company’s ,that a .25 basis rate cut would disappoint the Equity index markets as the recent rally had caught steam at every turn when the possibility of .50 rate cut was mentioned by FOMC governors during public speeches and the most recent economic data revealing a softening of economic data and loosening of a previously tight labor market . ( You may recall on August 21st the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report that jobs growth had been overstated by more than 800,000 souls between 3/23 and 3/24?) Where was the ES trading at the close of business on that day? 5641.50 , we are still in that wheelhouse. A .50 basis point cut may continue the current rally. 1:00 pm EDT , the first rate cut in 4 years will be here, are you ready? Tomorrow: in addition to Rates and Powell Presser; you will also get FOMC Summary of Economic Projections (released only 4 times a year during rate announcements) Here is a sample of the summary of Economic events from the June ’24 rate decision meeting, not to be confused with the FOMC Minutes. https://Https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20240612.pdf Trading levels for tomorrow and more on our blog. December is front month for indices, financials, metals and currencies.
Many times I have noticed, the real direction of the market post FOMC reveals itself the following day.... Levels for tomorrow as well as reports and short commentary on our BLOG
TriPPPle witching tomorrow! Stock Index September contracts (i.e., the E-mini and Micro S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones and Russell 2000.) expire Friday, Sept. 20th (8:30 A.M., Central Time). At that point, trading in these contracts halts. Stock index futures are CASH SETTLED contracts. If you hold any September futures contracts through 8:30 A.M., Central Time on Friday, they will be offset with the cash settlement price, as set by the exchange. FRONT MONTH IS NOW DECEMBER , the symbol is Z24, example for mini SP is ESZ24 Dollar index outlook below, levels for tomorrow on our blog.
Weekly newsletter issue #1209 is now LIVE, Inside: · Important Notices - Heavy Fed Speaking, Active Data, Few Earnings · Futures 101 - Tick Size & Minimum Fluctuations · Hot Market of the Week - March Sugar · Broker's Trading System of the Week - Copper Swing Trading System · Trading Levels for Next Week · Trading Reports for Next Week
Weekly Newsletter issue # 1211 Important Notices - FOMC Minutes, CPI, PPI, WASDE & Middle East. Futures 101 - SP 500 what's Next Hot Market of the Week - December Wheat Broker's Trading System of the Week - Silver Day Trading System Trading Levels for Next Week Trading Reports for Next Week Browse the full issue HERE