People by nature are optimistic about their ability, even when there is no reason to be. For example, most people think they are better than average drivers. Similarly, most people think they are better than average traders, even before they start trading! And if you weren't optimistic and, in fact, expected losses, why would you trade? Just to learn how to improve? I'd paper trade in that case and wouldn't use real money until I had an expectation of profit.