What would you do if you had the "holy grail"?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Error 404, Apr 13, 2004.

  1. Suppose someone actually discovered a method of trading that truly is infallible?

    Let's use me for example. I come up with something that will make money X% of the time, but lose money ZERO percent of the time. (not conversions or stategies hedged with zeros, or anything like that....I mean a real dynamic high return kind of strategy).

    Now I don't want to just give it away, because if more than a few individuals used this method, it would cease to work for me and anyone else. And of course there would be nothing in it for me.

    I don't want to sell it either. Pretty much for the same reason. I can't sell it to enough people at a reasonable cost. Sell it to too many people, and again, the method becomes ineffective (for several reasons).

    So I want to "share" the method. Meaning I would take "investors/partners" and share the profits. But to do this, I would have to lay out the system up front to show it is foolproof. If I do this, what is to prevent the potential investor from just doing it without me?

    Is there a way to protect the system? And myself?

    Any thoughts?

    BTW, many of you have read my trading posts. Those who have know I have ground it out for a lot of years (since 1988). While people were boasting about making 5% a day, etc., I always claimed to be content to make one tenth of one percent per day on average. Look it up on the ET search.

    I HAVE found it!!! Now I just don't know what to do with it. I have always traded "prop". I cannot do this on that basis.

    I can patiently build up an account with this technique, but that seems slow and tedious. And the truth is, I would like to retire soon, and have some others do the actual trading.

    Thoughts? Interest? Any contract lawyers who know if a "non-disclosure" agreement would be enforceable?

    PMs welcome. I will answer any I sense as being serious and sincere. And certainly any open discussion would interest me.

  2. dbphoenix


    What would you do if you had the "holy grail"?

    Auction it off on eBay . . .
  3. damir00

    damir00 Guest

    if the technique would go away if others found it, then use it yourself and milk it dry, because guaranteed, before you know it, someone else will have discovered exactly the same thing.

    there are no secrets...
  4. abogdan


    From my experience it is the best to find an Institution that would be interested in investing $$ for actual trading. They typically have 3 step verification process where you don't have to reveal your method. You can run it on your machine (automatically or manually) and they could VNC you live. It is a common practice to pay up to 2% on managed capital as royalties for such a system. Having said that there is only one warning: 0.1% return a day will not attract that much attention. People start to get interested at the level of 0.3% with a very minimal drawdowns. Good luck!
  5. error, that's a good post and deserves some thought. Ill get back to you when im sober.
  6. nitro


    Trade it.

  7. Hmm. What would I do if I found the "holy grail?" Why, I would sell it, of course, for $1,999.95, just like everyone else did who found it before me. Would I actually trade it with my own money? Don't be silly!

    Kidding aside, if you have something worth trading, then trade it. If you're in a hurry, trade it anyway and establish a track record. If your method, and therefore your performance, is truly any good, then I imagine that you will not have too much trouble finding other people's money to trade with.
  8. taodr


    Use it , trade your way to a fortune. That's what the "holy grail" in trading is supposed to be. When you have enough bucks or your holy grail turns into shit, then sell it !:)
  9. gms


    If I figured out an infallible trading system? What good would it do me if I didn't have my own highway lane.
  10. losing money 0% of time AND +0.1%/day
    Q: why not increase leverage and earn 0.5%/day?

    too many investors trading your strategy -> declining profitability
    Q: to want amount is your 'HG' scalable?

    I do not believe that it's possible to consistently identify tops&bottoms with high precision. Therefore, high return/drawdown strategies must be based on:

    - frequent trades,
    - broad diversification.

    Potential investors will probably demand real track records as they think backtested are worthless. If your strategy trades too frequently - it's not scalable. If it uses broad diversification (different sub-systems applied to multiple markets with many time frames) you'll need a lot $ just to cover margins.

    Let's say, after couple of years of trading you finally have the capital, which can cover margins for your diversified strategy. Now you'll have to trade it for ~5 years, b/c - of course - shorter period is not statistically significant to confirm strategy's robustness.

    Conclusion is, if you don't have a lot of capital already, you can't do anything with your 'HG'. What else I can wish you, only luck :(
    #10     Apr 13, 2004