As I responded to @traider, I will post a chart later showing the signals on the day in question in question. 9 worked, 3 failed and one scratched which constitutes a very nice day. I don't try and pick tops or bottoms although there are those who do that successfully. I look for momentum initiation and then points of resumption.
1) Direction and Trend can refer to intraday and to daily movement or ANY other TF. e.g. weekly ..monthy...yearly 2) Yesterday’s can mean something about today’s trend. However, the extent of what it may mean depends also upon the larger context of yesterdays trend. Here is the ES daily chart. Last bar is today’s Feb 3,2020 Around 11:20 a.m central time. So looking at this context: 1) what are the odds of it closing near it’s high of the day? 2) are the odds greater it will close near it’s low? 3) what is the biggest bar in say the last 80 bars? 4) are the last few days bars overlapping? 5) what is the general direct of the trend over several days (say 80 days or so)? 6) is price going down to sideways last few days? 7) where is price in terms of the intermediate trend? (gray solid MA) 8) how did price open today gap up from yesterday or gap down? 9) what are the chances the low of the day has been made? 10) what are the chances we will end up with a range day closing somewhere close to the middle of the rang. 11) at this moment who is winning on that last bar (today’s bar) the bears or the bulls? 12) I included the volume in light of yesterday's bar being a large bear bar. What does this correlation of yesterday’s bar and yesterday’s volume hint at? 13) what is the feeling (emotion in your mind) you get at a quick glance of this chart the last 6 days? Bullish? Bearish? Confusion?
%% Line charts are easy to keep in your mind; to slow/ to imprecise @ a glance, to be much use. BUT if 95% of traders inevestors/traders hate them, that could be helpful to some LOL.[A mountain/valley chart is an improved line chart, better for sure.] But as far as trends/profit on trends/trend following; a 200 period moving average looks a lot like a line, a slow, imprecise line chart . No wonder so many hate tech analysis LOL-LOL...........................................................................................................
I'm only showing a portion of 1/30 ES trades as it was a very volatile day and it would scrunch up the charts too much to show everything. My trades are called 930's, a term coined by a friend and mentor by the name of Mike Bruns and they can be formed on any of my three time frames but the filters will vary correspondingly. The signal is a close or at least half the bar above the 9 EMA in a downtrend for a short and vice versa. The entry is on the bar takeout of the signal pivot and the initial stop over/under the low/high of the pivot. I employ targets based on maximum favorable excursion based on current volatility....currently it's 12 ticks. There appear to be more entries on the two charts I am showing but they would have been negated by my filters, eg, price touching or close to touching the 9 EMA on the next higher time frame or divergence on the next higher time frame. I have more qualifiers but I am not interested in pissing in the wind explaining a trade plan I have shown and explained in detail through the months and years. I have no problem with helping those diligent and of good will but I don't like wasting my time. I don't get paid nor do I have any interest in getting paid for giving advice, ideas or direction to a developing trader. These are simply examples of trades on the day in question in a likely vain attempt to explain to the OP where trades (signals) appear in what may appear to him, simply random "noise". As stated prior, it was a good day for me with 9 wins, 3 losers and one scratch. The day had 7 winners in a row which is uncommon for me but not as uncommon as 7 losers in a row but both will occur from time to time. The arrows show entries both long and short, the only losses on the charts are the triangles. As I stated, this is likely a waste of time but you never know and I said I would do it. I have no interest in arguing with trolls and critics, so save your negativity for your fellows. This is what works for me and everyone has to find their own path. There are as many trade plans as there are traders.
Evidently I saved them in duplicate...there are only two charts. I don't have the best trade plan in the world but it works for me. Good luck in finding something which works for you other than trying to convince yourself and others that it can't be done or that it is so esoteric that only institutional savants can survive, that's bullshit. I will also post this in the OP's other redundant thread.
Considering all the above info nobody postulates a closing scenario? ok I will. It could go either way. That indicates confusion. Confusion means range. Odds are it will close in the middle to upper part of the bar and will be an inside daily bar. Last trading bar (Friday I think I said yesterday above but I mean’t Friday) was a big bear bar on high volume closing near the low of the day. Exhaustive bar. Indicates next day will probably recover at least 50% of that bar. Main trend is up so I don’t really look for today to be a down day. Last 6 bars are sideways and overlapping = typical of range trading. Bull bar followed by bear bar followed by bull bar etc... Gap up on the open favors midrange or above close on the bar. Summary; I would say odds favor an inside bull bar closing in the middle of the bar or above but still within a range. Worst case a low close but still a bull bar. Of course the market can do the exact opposite of what I am saying. However, I think the scenario I mention above has about a 60% chance of being right and a 40% chance of being wrong. But that is about as good as it gets except in some cases where probability is higher than 60%.
Hey now, quit feeding the troll. He's arguing for argument's sake. What you say will merely go in one ear and out the other.
Yeah, I know It can be like teaching a mule how to dance. But ya never know when something might kick some synapses loose.