Discussion in 'Trading' started by sbn, Jun 21, 2006.
Can anyone explain what's with the major downtrend or major selling off these past weeks?
In my opinion;
The markets have been in a commodity fueled bull run since march 2003 when the US military entered Iraq, all in the meantime inflation had been tame with low interest rates and a robust labor market giving consistent growing corporate earnings, so price was/is rising in line with earnings and multiples are actually contracting, the market was lead to believe for a long time that interest rates were in the last stage of the new millium increases, then Benny turns around and says NO! we are not done, remember maria on CNBC saying Ben wispered something in her ear, thats when the market starting pricing in that the fed is not done, and the inflation is present most likely from higher energy costs because things like retail figures take into a/c petrol stations register totals, thus giving a false sense of real inflation, big money have re-balanced their portfolio by increasing bond exposure and decreasing stock markt exposure, the sudden, quick and volatile sell off is because the market was shocked and was not made well aware like they were use to by the talented Greenspan. I also think that recent events in global stockmarkets have reminded the world never to under-estimate the clout and ripple effect of the Federal Reserve of the United States and the Fund managers that operate within.
I think this is a medium-term market correction; there are good buying opportunities and probably will be for a few more months and we will be back and intra-year highs by christmas.
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