What will Mark the Next Market Top?

The Nasdaq bubble was marked by fear of the 'Year 2000' software issue and Greenspin's preventive injection of liquidity.

Our latest greatest real estate bubble was marked by a peak in ARM resets that occurred 3Q '07.

So ... what do YOU think will be the catalyst for blow-off top of our currently inflating asset bubble?

Here are my best guesses:

A. Oil back near $150/bbl. History has shown that we've ALWAYS headed into recession when real oil prices reach this level. It's a given. Moreover, with geopolitics and hot money flows, we could be there in a heartbeat.

B. There is a second wave of ARM resets due to crest in mid '10. Combine that with deteriorating consumer credit and commercial loan quality, and the US will be bailing out the too-big-to-fails all over again.

So I'm guessing our current rally will reach it's zenith in mid 2010, when the ARM resets are peaking and oil is well north of US$100.

 

Rising prices and excessive optimism during the Summer.

 

Ditto

When the market's going up on negative news, then you know the top is near.

 

I thought that was how you called a bottom?

What do I know, its all just squiggly lines.

 

The very last tick/trade at the absolute high.

Problem is you won't know with any certainty until later that it was the top.