The Nasdaq bubble was marked by fear of the 'Year 2000' software issue and Greenspin's preventive injection of liquidity. Our latest greatest real estate bubble was marked by a peak in ARM resets that occurred 3Q '07. So ... what do YOU think will be the catalyst for blow-off top of our currently inflating asset bubble? Here are my best guesses: A. Oil back near $150/bbl. History has shown that we've ALWAYS headed into recession when real oil prices reach this level. It's a given. Moreover, with geopolitics and hot money flows, we could be there in a heartbeat. B. There is a second wave of ARM resets due to crest in mid '10. Combine that with deteriorating consumer credit and commercial loan quality, and the US will be bailing out the too-big-to-fails all over again. So I'm guessing our current rally will reach it's zenith in mid 2010, when the ARM resets are peaking and oil is well north of US$100.