No but if you have a 30 year horizon, the odds are quite good, at least in the US. I am not trying to change the rule, and I haven't done the simulation but I think if you invest like a saver, with dollar cost averaging and dividend reinvestment, even investing in the Nikkei starting in 1989 will likely be not too bad?
The odds WERE good, you never know what the future will bring. It is very strange that only a few people in the world were able to take advantage of it. In hindsight it looks very easy, but over 99% of all traders and investors never succeeded to take the ride. Japan was from 1950-1989 an economical wonder. Trees were growing in the sky without any limit. And then suddenly everything changed. In 2 years time the nikkei lost 50% of it's value. Depending on when people bought, they can still be losing money today after holding their position for 30 years or more. Nobody in the period 1950-1989 would have believed that this could be possible. But nothing is impossible.
Livesquawk Retweeted fiatcurrency ن @fiatcurrency 5m5 minutes ago We have reports from readers in Italy that ATM machines are being emptied. A run on banks is beginning in Italy.
Really? Last spring I read story after story about the Greek run on banks, riots at ATMs, no cash available....the sky is falling! And then I went there, traveling all over the Peloponnese and the islands and never saw a line of more than 2 people at an ATM, never encountered an ATM without money, never saw a riot or public displays of anger of any kind really. And what do you know but the world didn't end. It certainly sucked to be Greek in Greece at the time, but the situation in reality was nothing like what was breathlessly being reported. I tell you what, I tried to get money from my BofA ATM on the East Coast of the U.S. last weekend and it was empty! I'm reporting this to you. Please, I'm a reader in the U.S., let everyone know there is a run on banks in the U.S.!
I like the projection on that chart. The timing of the down move is the key. What's likely to happen is a snow-ball effect...first Great Britain, then Italy, then Germany....all going downhill. Should happen by start of 2017.
This is how assets and liabilities of pension systems are diverging almost exactly along with central bank interest rate suppression in the UK. It's doing exactly the same thing in the US. Central banks are destroying pension systems. For public pensions and large politically connected private pensions, the taxpayer will eventually be tasked with making up the difference. For private pensions, you are SOL.
So what happened to your bank run in Italy fhl? Did it turn out the "reports from readers" on a conspiracy site maybe isn't the most reliable source of news in the world? Do you ever hold yourself accountable for this stuff?