I never had any aha moment. I just realized that you have to go with the flow. Maybe that was my aha moment? I dunno.
Along with Elliott Wave Theory do you factor entry triggers into your trades, enter on anticipation, or what triggers an entry? Your Gold call for a Monday Long shows some support below the price but are there any signs that it is time to trigger an entry besides anticipation and EWT? https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-25#post-5546083 https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...n-known-beforehand.366770/page-2#post-5588393
For me, it was when I was first trying to code a trading system without really understanding what I was doing and somehow a light bulb came on that stock markets indexes are not moving because of news but because they are pre programmed to move upward and downward. Now it's been years ago since that day, but imo, instos drive the mkt initially, ie, they get in near bottoms, usually buying just prior to a bottom and as it turns. Retail then take over and push momentum up further, with minimum insto assistance, but also depending on value, ie, is it still a bargain price. Just prior to tops and as it turns insto's are bailing and the trend falls, later on not so much due to selling pressure, it's more to do with insto's disinterest and absence. Then the cycle starts over. Often noteworthy news events don't really impact trend so much due to the fact instos have already made up their mind on direction.
If you are not reading and using a stockchart----you are an idiot. Like driving a car with a blindfold. Too damn stupid. What the stockcharts will tell you is where the stock is headed. Trends do matter and ignore it at your peril. I do not need to know what hedge fund algorithms are doing, nor do I care. I just need to align my trades with the major trend. From personal experience, most of the times I lost monies and the trade I put on failed is because the trend has changed and I did not exit fast enough. In the times I exited promptly, the losses were pretty small and minimal to be of concern. I am not competing against the big boys including, hedge funds. What I am doing is aligning my trade with what they are doing. After all, they drive trends and the entire stockmarket.
Recently i find the parallel channel correction very interesting , it takes in to account an a-b-c correction as well but looks very promising if you can ensure that its a correction. I do use fourth wave entries, which most shows complex correction or triangle which is followed by a swift thrust down/up in relation to the bigger time frame(i.e if the larger trend is down or up )
I think automated algo trading doesn’t necessarily exclude looking at the trend. If the program looks at the market data it’s “looking at” the trend or the countertrend before initiating trades. It just isn’t physically looking at the trend like a human does. Human has eyes so he can visualize data. Algo programs don’t have eyes but they can analyze market data and “see” the trend more clearly than humans.
I would say 90% time the “trend” we see is either fake (due to market tricks/traps) or just noise. Only 10% time market shows a true trend that is beyond any manipulation and has a clear high S/N ratio. That’s when we humans can trade and win. All other 90% time when we trade is only a wash at the end since we don’t have any statistical edge. Algo programs can definitely see smaller trends with low S/N ratios better than humans and trade on them to be profitable.