Absoloutely. Soros may be bold as well just less public about it. Although if either one lost five billion today they would still be in great shape. Easier to be bold now compared to when they only had a few hundred million and were betting it all.
when I stop searching the holy grail. when I start to realize the ideas I have are the grestest, the stargeties I use is the most useful. I stop GNERALIZTION from my experience, when I know I can survive the game without need of polishing my skills. I will not treat each trade individuallly. I treat trades collectively. I will put this years' trades together or even next years trades (those I did not do) into my consideration. not like a beginner chess player, aim toward killing locally, while not from the whole picture. what I changed is my view/pholosopy of trading, on the surface,nothing changed. I still trade like before, but the results are totally different.
Common sense, this was the thing which was mostly needed for proper planning of the target. Stop having fantasy numbers on mind and be more reasonable enough while realizing the profits.
Many good and interesting thoughts expressed yet the OP (and other newer traders) should understand that it is frequently not about the last thing or anything. Some of us had to learn the same damn lessons more than once and more than twice. The earlier you can internalize what General George Patton said (at least in the movie!) the better off you are: "I hate to retreat because I hate paying for the same damn real estate twice." Once you learn "it", codify it and really make it yours. Don't pay for that RE (and we pay dearly for most every inch) and then revert back to your old habits. The right stuff is hard to find. Once you find a piece of it large or small hang on to it. You are solving a puzzle or, if you prefer, learning a language and you must not lose any pieces or forget any words or phrases. My last piece was to remember to wait for very high quality trades and not execute the "almost". Quality in anything is scarce. If you are seeing a ton of trades there is a pretty fair chance that only a few will give you the hat trick. For me the hat trick is: 1) A solid pedigree -- it originated in a place that you would expect a trade of its nature to come from; 2) it gives you a low or at least modest MAE; 3) it delivers a solid entry bar that shows you there is torque. No matter how carefully you choose you are not going to get hat tricks all the time but you must expect a trade to deliver all three or you should pass. Setting the bar that high means that, in time, you can comfortably increase size. The ability to trade size based on consistency may not be heaven but it is not many blocks away.
Swan Noir, that's an outstanding post. I cant agree enough, there are surprisingly few high quality trades offered. Developing the skill and mental patience to focus in on these situations and ignore the rest, makes a huge difference. I find expanding the range of markets traded, helps expand frequency.
Clearly, adding markets gives you more frequency and, presumably, a better bottom line. I still have the capacity to confuse the "almost" and on some days the "less than almost" great trade with real quality. Increasingly, I compare what we do with a USDA inspector making the subtle (yet very real) distinctions between prime and choice. I miss the mark too often to introduce any additional complexity into my job. I've focused exclusively on CL. I not only do not have any other charts on the screen, I don't have any in the software. I want to master CL; my premise is if I can recognize and execute those prime trades in CL without missing in too many that are choice and very few that are standard grade I'll in great shape. The jury is still out.
Understood. You're not alone, in that I also miss the mark more than I'd like to. It's very easy to get everything right apart from one component, which spoils the entire position. Having said that, getting it wrong with meaningful money is the only way to truly learn, at least for me. Paper trades and backtests have their place, but there's nothing quite like a slap around the chops for behavioural reinforcement. Especially when you were expecting a prize and a round of applause... I don't know your trade frequency, but my initial layers of conditions to trade are based on weekly data. The window for placing a trade is not open very often in any one market. So from my POV, expansion is a necessity. But yes, it can add some confusion - especially when I get conflicting signals in related markets! It's a part of the puzzle I'm still working on..
I wish there was something half as effective as that slap but you are correct there isn't. We are wired to learn from the hot stove not the concept of it. Paper trading, as you say, has its place but can only take you so far. I wake with virtually my entire net worth in dollars and by 14:30 I am once again back to cash. I do not carry any positions overnight or even past what I still consider RTH.
A hard thing to master is ignoring others, even great traders, and just listening to your plan reads.