Hello folks. I would look for Nazdog 2,500! And wonder aloud if 50% retracement of top to bottom decline means anything when applied to an index as a whole? That may be a sticking point and we'll flirt in and around that for the first week in Jan. before starting a decline.
Blue... that's what I thought too... and just as you made the above call, the market started turning up a bit. hehehe Dunno if it will close up, I just thought it was funny
I am only looking for a 10% correction. Wow that makes me really bearish. But I am looking for it now, and not Jan, as I think the longs have their hands tied due to taxes. As for traders who mark to market, we don't and can front-run the Jan sell-off. But hey, buy puts and in a 10% sell-off you can make FIVE times or more at the current level of the VIX. Think about that. Good trade unless you think that the chances of a 10% correction is less than 20%? Hmm..let's see...the super bull market in 1994-1995 has a 7.3% correction in DECEMBER-JANUARY. What is lacking now is the bulls saying something like, "I am buying more because of the bearish calls". Why? I guess no more margin?
The biggest problem right now I think, is that there really aren't any more bears. You have fake bears, not real bears. Soo... when everyone's in the market, who will you talk into buying to keep the momentum going? I've been waffling back and forth about sentiment myself for the last week. I woke up today thinking... you know, if I completely sell off, I'd have a pretty happy Christmas, with nothing to worry about. But then, paying taxes for 2006 is too brutal to contemplate to really do that. I think a lot of people must be in that boat too. Ahhhh January. What will happen? I just bought SOMETHING ELSE today. My brain says... SELL SOMETHING, and my fingers buy something. I wonder if others are doing the same thing.
I made 20% in a stock this year, but it is short term gain. So I will have to pay 35% versus 10%. But since I expect a 10% correction, I was happy to pay the extra taxes. So I sold it last week. But that is just my personal account. Taxes for futures are always fixed. 25.8% or pls correct me? And I turnover too much to really worry about deferring taxes for 1 year. I have long term investments locked up elsewhere.
Amazing...very weird futures action... no volume spikes as we cross supports. never seen this in a while.
housing data should be a catalyst....either pick up momentum for selling...or finish slightly up for the indices like dow plus 22 if good news. but aapl, goog, bidu.....look weak for the remainder of the year.