What to short if Argentina markets collapse?

Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by billpritjr, Aug 9, 2008.

  1. rros


    Perhaps, perhaps... (just came back from there).

    Look for the credit default swaps. Ask your bank. Or the bonds. Some argentine companies trading in US exchanges:

    CRESY (ag)
    BG (ag)
    TS (steel)
    BFR, BRS (financials)
    DXO (consumer non-cyc)
    IRS (real estate)
    LQU (beverages)
    YPF (oil)

    A new crisis may trigger something similar to what happened back in the mid 70's known as 'rodrigazo' which was an attempt to come clean with all market prices which led to hyperinflation. Eventually, a currency correction must ensue. If there is a peronist crack and NK is removed from the party, the whole head of the government may change. I expect a 50% currency devaluation by 2009.

    The biggest blow may come if China hits Brazil which in turn may hit Argentina, a double blow. Since Brazil's unrelentless growth may also come into question you can also short ILF.
  2. I read that Tenaris is about 75% of the index, no?
  3. kxvid